Why Ohio’s Issue 1 proposal failed, and how the AP called the race

On Tuesday, Ohio’s electorate turned down a proposal, known as Issue 1, which would have increased the difficulty to modify the state’s constitution, including a prospective November measure that might have safeguarded abortion rights within Ohio.

Big Big News, a media outlet, announced the defeat of Issue 1, ascertaining that its proponents could not muster the support required to necessitate future changes to the state’s constitution by 60% of voters, rather than the usual majority vote.

The tally showed that the votes cast against Issue 1, the No votes, exceeded the Yes votes by over 350,000. Nearly 90% of the anticipated votes had been counted, with some key Democratic-leaning areas like Cuyahoga County still to finalize their results.

Early voting, conducted via mail or in-person prior to Election Day, was predominantly against Issue 1, at a ratio of 70% to 30%, with over 700,000 votes cast ahead of Election Day.

On Election Day, the No side also seemed to have a slim edge, and this factor, combined with the pronounced result in the early vote, resulted in an insurmountable lead for the Yes side.

This substantial lead for the No votes showed that a considerable fraction of Republican voters opposed the measure. Despite leading in regions where Trump had stronger success in 2020, the Yes side trailed far behind Trump’s previous performance in almost every county. As anticipated, the No side led overwhelmingly in areas that Joe Biden won in 2020.

According to data from political firm L2, evidence of Republican voters crossing party lines was evident. Even though political party registration is not required in Ohio, L2’s information on early voting showed Democrats were responsible for around 50% of early ballots, compared to 40% by Republicans. Independent voters cast the remaining ballots.

Women, particularly Democratic women, outvoted men in early voting, constituting the majority of early ballots.

Though Issue 1’s text didn’t directly refer to abortion or reproductive rights, the result of the special election would have had a direct impact on the percentage of votes required to approve a separate measure ensuring “a fundamental right to reproductive freedom” in the state’s constitution. This measure had been slated for the November ballot, turning Issue 1 into a crucial focal point in the national abortion discourse.

Since the reversal of Roe vs. Wade by the Supreme Court, other states like Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan have demonstrated that a majority ranging from 50% to 60% support legal access to abortion.

In Ohio, 59% of midterm voters last year supported the legality of abortion in most or all instances, as per AP VoteCast. This indicates that if Issue 1 had been successful, proponents of abortion rights would have encountered significant challenges in enshrining abortion rights in Ohio’s constitution this upcoming November.