Declining Confidence in U.S. Primary Elections and Political Parties, Reveals AP-NORC Survey

As the Republican primary season commences, a considerable number of party members express doubts about the accuracy of vote counting in their presidential primaries. This sentiment is part of a broader skepticism about the future of both major U.S. political parties, as highlighted in a recent survey by The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Approximately one-third of Republicans trust that the upcoming GOP primaries and caucuses will tally votes accurately. Around 30% have moderate confidence, while 32% possess little to no faith in the vote counting process. Conversely, 72% of Democrats express high confidence in their party’s vote counting accuracy in primary contests, with a marginally greater number trusting the Republican process as well.

The poll reflects a continuing trend of Republican skepticism regarding vote accuracy, not only in early contests but also in the general election. About 25% of Republicans feel confident about the accuracy of the 2024 presidential election vote count, a stark contrast to Democratic opinion. Meanwhile, less than half (46%) of U.S. adults overall share this confidence, mirroring a similar AP-NORC poll from June.

This Republican distrust follows years of unsubstantiated claims by former President Donald Trump about election fraud in the 2020 election. These claims have been widely discredited by federal and state election officials, including Trump’s own attorney general, and dismissed by courts, some appointed by Trump himself.

Julie Duggan, 32, from Chicago and a Trump supporter, reflects this sentiment: “I don’t trust any of them at this point.”

The survey indicates a general distrust in both major parties among U.S. adults. About one-quarter express minimal confidence in either party’s fairness in selecting presidential nominees. This level of distrust is even higher among Independents, at about 50%, compared to 25% of Republicans and 19% of Democrats.

Furthermore, 46% of U.S. adults are pessimistic about the manner in which national leaders are chosen. Similar levels of pessimism exist regarding the future of both the Republican and Democratic parties, shared by half of U.S. adults, including a significant proportion of Independents and party members.

Gary Jackson, a 65-year-old retired Republican trucker from Boise, Idaho, expresses disappointment with both parties: “Right now, I’m not impressed with either party.”

Political independent Christine Allen from Maryland admires her state’s former governor, Larry Hogan, but is disillusioned with the two-party system that she believes hinders capable leaders.

Despite mixed sentiments, some, like Allen, still believe in the fairness of primaries over the Electoral College. Yet, there’s widespread unease about the types of nominees parties might select. A recent AP-NORC poll reveals that Democrats and Republicans alike lack confidence in their party’s processes yielding a candidate who can win the general election or represent their views, or those of most Americans.

In a specific case, Mark Richards, a 33-year-old Democrat and teacher from Toledo, Ohio, anticipates President Joe Biden’s renomination despite his low approval ratings and the inherent flaws he sees in the nominating system, which he believes is overly influenced by political fundraising.

The survey, conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4, 2023, included 1,074 adults and was based on NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to represent the U.S. population. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

Report by Riccardi from Denver.

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More about Election Skepticism

• AP-NORC Poll Results
• Understanding U.S. Primary Elections
• 2024 Presidential Election Outlook
• Impact of Misinformation on Political Trust
• Comparative Analysis of Republican and Democrat Views
• Historical Trends in U.S. Political Parties
• Voter Confidence and Election Integrity
• Public Opinion and Political Parties