Trump transformed the Supreme Court. Now the justices could decide his political and legal future

Donald Trump’s influence on the U.S. Supreme Court has become a significant aspect of his legacy. With the appointment of three conservative justices during his presidency, the court finds itself at the center of two crucial cases that hold immense political ramifications just weeks ahead of the Iowa caucuses. The outcomes of these legal battles have the potential to determine whether the Republican presidential front-runner will face trial for his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and whether he stands a chance at reclaiming the White House in the upcoming November election.

Steve Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin, describes the Supreme Court’s current position as historically unique and of constitutional significance. The court, which now leans conservative with the three Trump-appointed justices—Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett—faces a complex situation.

One case involves Trump’s lawyers planning to petition the Supreme Court to overturn a decision that barred him from Colorado’s ballot based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This section prevents anyone who took an oath to support the Constitution and then engaged in insurrection against it from holding office. Notably, this is the first instance in history where this provision has been invoked to prevent a presidential candidacy.

Simultaneously, the justices are considering a request from special counsel Jack Smith to expedite a ruling on whether Trump can be prosecuted for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2020 election results. The urgency stems from the desire to avoid delays that might push the trial, scheduled for March 4, until after the next presidential election. Trump vehemently denies any wrongdoing in this case.

Trump’s influence on the Supreme Court extends beyond these two cases. During his presidency, he appointed over 230 federal judges, reshaping the ideological composition of the judiciary. This impact is reflected in decisions that have revoked long-standing constitutional abortion rights, established new standards for gun laws, and eliminated affirmative action in college admissions.

However, it’s important to note that while the court has been a focal point of contemporary political discourse and is viewed skeptically by a significant portion of the American electorate, it has not consistently ruled in favor of Trump. For instance, in January 2022, the court rejected Trump’s attempt to withhold presidential documents sought by a congressional committee investigating the January 6 insurrection. The justices also allowed Trump’s tax returns to be released to a congressional committee following a protracted legal battle.

The current situation involving the Supreme Court’s involvement in Trump’s legal and political future is particularly precarious given the general political instability in the United States. The court’s decision in the 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush is often cited, but that case came after the votes were cast. In 2023, the situation is more delicate, and experts suggest that the court may be hesitant to make definitive decisions on Trump’s immunity claims, opting instead to let states or Congress address the matter.

Nonetheless, the Supreme Court may feel compelled to address the critical issues at the heart of these cases to provide clarity amid the uncertainty surrounding a leading presidential candidate’s legal situation. The consequences of these decisions will undoubtedly have a profound impact on both Trump’s political future and the broader political landscape of the United States.

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• Supreme Court
• 14th Amendment
• Donald Trump’s Presidency
• U.S. Presidential Elections
• Trump’s Judicial Appointments
• Political Instability in the United States