Waning Confidence in Primary Elections and Major Political Parties, Reveals AP-NORC Survey

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As the Republican Party’s presidential primaries are about to commence, there’s a growing lack of certainty among Republicans regarding the accurate counting of votes in their primaries. This sentiment reflects a broader sense of disillusionment with the future prospects of both major political parties in the United States, as indicated by a recent survey from The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Approximately one-third of Republicans express significant confidence in the accurate tabulation of votes in their party’s primary elections and caucuses. Meanwhile, around 30% of Republicans have a moderate level of confidence, and 32% have little to no confidence at all. In a stark contrast, 72% of Democrats maintain high confidence in their party’s ability to accurately count votes in primary contests. Democrats also tend to be more confident than Republicans in the accuracy of the Republican Party’s vote counting.

Republicans broadly remain skeptical about the precision of vote counting, not just in early contests but also in future elections. Around one-quarter of Republicans feel confident about the accuracy of vote counting in the 2024 presidential election, a sentiment much lower than that of Democrats. Close to half of the American adults (46%) share this view, aligning with a June AP-NORC poll.

This skepticism among Republicans has roots in former President Donald Trump’s unfounded claims of election fraud in 2020, despite no credible evidence supporting these allegations as confirmed by federal and state election officials, including Trump’s own attorney general. The courts, including those with judges appointed by Trump, have also consistently dismissed these claims.

Julie Duggan, a 32-year-old Trump supporter from Chicago, reflects this distrust: “Nothing will be fair because the last election was rigged. I don’t trust any of them at this point.”

The survey uncovers a general mistrust in both major political parties among American adults. About a quarter of U.S. adults express minimal confidence in both the Democratic and Republican Parties’ fairness in choosing presidential nominees. This lack of trust is particularly pronounced among independents, with about half of them doubting both parties’ processes.

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Less than half of U.S. adults — 46% — express pessimism about the manner in which the nation’s leaders are selected.

Around half of American adults are concerned about the future of the Republican Party, including a third of Republicans and 45% of independents. Similar levels of pessimism are seen regarding the Democratic Party’s future, with 45% of U.S. adults, including about a quarter of Democrats and 41% of independents, feeling uneasy.

Gary Jackson, a 65-year-old retired trucker and Republican from Boise, Idaho, criticizes both parties: “The way they’re spending our money and not protecting our people here in the United States of America… Right now, I’m not impressed with either party.”

Christine Allen, a political independent from Gambrills, Maryland, admires her state’s former governor, Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican. Hogan’s decision not to run in the GOP presidential primary, according to her, symbolizes how the two-party system hinders capable leaders from gaining office. She comments, “Everybody right now is acting like children, and no one is emerging as a winner.”

However, Allen believes the primaries are fairer than the Electoral College.

Even party affiliates are concerned about their respective parties’ nominee selections. A recent AP-NORC poll suggests that both Democrats and Republicans lack confidence in their party’s primaries producing a candidate who can win the general election or represent their party’s or Americans’ views adequately.

Only 30% of Democrats are confident their party will choose a candidate representing most Americans, and about a quarter believe the candidate will align with their personal views. Similarly, about 30% of Republicans trust that their party will select a nominee who represents the majority of Americans, with one-third expecting a nominee who aligns with their views.

Mark Richards, a 33-year-old middle school teacher and Democrat from Toledo, Ohio, anticipates President Joe Biden’s re-nomination despite low approval ratings. He believes that while the primaries might be fair, the system is fundamentally flawed due to its heavy reliance on financial contributions from PACs and Super PACs.

The poll, which involved 1,074 adults, was conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4, 2023. It utilized a sample from NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to represent the U.S. population. The margin of error for all respondents is plus

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More about AP-NORC Poll Politics

• AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
• AmeriSpeak Panel Overview
• 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Predictions
• Understanding Political Polls and Surveys
• U.S. Election Integrity and Voter Confidence
• The Impact of Political Allegations on Public Trust
• Analysis of U.S. Political Party Dynamics
• Overview of the U.S. Electoral College System