Russian Defense Minister Appears Publicly Post-Mercenary Revolt Amid Prevailing Uncertainties

54

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, made his first public appearance since a revolt by mercenaries called for his removal. He was seen reviewing troops in Ukraine in a video shared on Monday, an effort to exhibit stability following the country’s most severe political crisis in decades.

However, there remains a cloud of uncertainty over his fate, as well as that of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the rebellion, and his private army. Questions about the war’s impact on Ukraine, and even the political future of President Vladimir Putin, continue to circulate.

The feud between Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, and Russia’s military elite, which had been simmering throughout the war, escalated into a rebellion, leading to the mercenaries departing Ukraine. They then briefly seized a military headquarters in southern Russia and appeared to march towards Moscow unopposed, only to turn back after less than 24 hours on Saturday.

The Kremlin announced a deal that Prigozhin and his soldiers would move to Belarus and receive amnesty. However, on Monday, Russian media reported that a criminal investigation against him was ongoing, and his current location remained unknown.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin declared an end to the “counterterrorism regime” enacted in the capital on Saturday, where troops and armored vehicles established checkpoints on the periphery, and roadways leading into the city were blocked, hinting at a return to some form of normality.

Shoigu was depicted in a helicopter and later in a meeting with officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine, a display widely broadcasted on Russian media, including state-controlled television. The time of shooting remained uncertain.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff, another primary target of Prigozhin’s resentment, has yet to appear in public.

The aftermath of the purportedly brokered deal by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for Prigozhin and his forces remains uncertain. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday that Putin has promised that Prigozhin will be permitted to relocate to Belarus.

However, the RIA Novosti state news agency reported, citing anonymous sources from the Prosecutor General’s office, that the criminal case against Prigozhin remained open, contradicting earlier statements from the Kremlin. Interfax news agency published a similar report.

Prigozhin appeared relaxed in some of the last footage taken during the rebellion. He responded to a query about his view of the rebellion’s outcome with a nonchalant “It’s normal, we have cheered everyone up,” while leaving Rostov-on-Don in an SUV after a brief occupation on Saturday.

The feud between Prigozhin and the military, which has been ongoing for years, originated from the Russian military intervention in Syria, where Wagner forces were also active. Observers suggest that Putin’s failure to mediate the feud might have emboldened Prigozhin to take drastic action.

Russian media and analysts speculated about Shoigu’s potential replacement. However, they suggested that Putin, known for not making hasty decisions, would likely delay announcing any significant changes.

Analysts have characterized Prigozhin’s rebellion as a desperate attempt to prevent the dismantling of Wagner following an order mandating all private military companies to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1.

Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense affairs committee in the lower house of Russia’s parliament, has proposed a bill that would regulate private military companies’ activities. He suggests continuing to use Wagner troops, referring to them as “the most capable unit in Russia.”

Uncertainty remains about the effect of the brief rebellion on the ongoing war in Ukraine

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Russian Defense Minister Post-Revolt

More about Russian Defense Minister Post-Revolt

• Wagner Group
• Russian Defense Ministry
• Conflict in Ukraine
• Yevgeny Prigozhin
• Sergei Shoigu