Russia Strives for Stability Amid Mercenary Revolt but Questions Remain

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Following the unprecedented revolt by mercenaries demanding his removal, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made his public debut, scrutinizing troops in Ukraine as part of a video broadcasted on Monday. The video intended to convey a sense of stability in the wake of the most severe political crisis Russia has experienced in decades.

Nevertheless, the fate of Shoigu, the rebellion leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his privately contracted soldiers, the impact on the Ukrainian war, and even President Vladimir Putin’s political destiny remain shrouded in uncertainty.

A longstanding grudge between the head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, and Russia’s military authorities culminated in a mutiny that caused the mercenaries to abandon Ukraine, seize a military base in a southern Russian city, and make their way unchallenged towards Moscow. After less than a day, they turned back on Saturday.

The Kremlin announced a deal for Prigozhin and his men to relocate to Belarus with an offer of amnesty. His location on Monday was unverified, but reports on a widely followed Russian news channel on Telegram claimed he was seen in a hotel in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

Despite the Kremlin’s statement, the criminal investigation against Prigozhin persisted, with some lawmakers demanding his punishment.

A semblance of normalcy returned as the Moscow mayor lifted the “counterterrorism regime” imposed on Saturday when troops and armored vehicles were stationed at checkpoints around the city and access routes to the city were disrupted.

Amid speculations in the Russian media that Shoigu and other military leaders might lose Putin’s trust and face replacement, the Defense Ministry video of Shoigu’s activities was released. The timing of the video remains unknown.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff and another key object of Prigozhin’s wrath, hasn’t made any public appearances.

The future of Prigozhin and his troops under the purported agreement brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko remains uncertain. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, stated that Putin has assured that Prigozhin would be allowed to move to Belarus.

According to the RIA Novosti state news agency, the Prosecutor General’s office maintains that the criminal case against Prigozhin is not closed, contradicting previous Kremlin assertions. The Interfax news agency reported similarly.

The extent of Prigozhin’s resources and the portion of his considerable wealth that he can access are unclear. On the day of the rebellion, the police discovered 4 billion rubles ($48 million) in trucks outside his St. Petersburg office, according to Russian media outlets. Prigozhin claimed this money was for compensating the soldiers’ families.

Several Russian lawmakers have advocated for stricter regulations on private military corporations under a forthcoming law. Some even argued that Prigozhin must face repercussions.

Retired general and current lawmaker Andrei Gurulev, who previously clashed with the mercenary leader, stated that Prigozhin and his deputy Dmitry Utkin, who manages the Wagner Group, deserve severe punishment.

In one of the last videos recorded during the uprising, Prigozhin appeared unperturbed.

Prigozhin has had a longstanding conflict with the military, dating back to the Russian military intervention in Syria, where Wagner forces were also involved.

The lack of action from Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov possibly suggests ambiguity regarding the president’s backing. Observers believe Putin’s indecisiveness inadvertently spurred Prigozhin to escalate the situation.

Alex Younger, former head of Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency, believes both sides were lacking control during the revolt. He mentioned that Putin appeared hesitant, initially promising to crush the rebels, then striking a deal.

Rumors suggest that Shoigu could be replaced, but Putin, known for his composure under stress, is likely to delay announcing any major changes.

On Monday, Putin engaged in calls with the leaders of Iran and Qatar, the Kremlin reported. He also addressed a forum of young engineers in a pre-recorded video message without mentioning the revolt.

Prigozhin’s rebellion is seen by some analysts as a desperate attempt to prevent the Wagner Group from being disbanded following a directive that all private military companies sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst, believes that Prigozhin’s uprising wasn’t a power play or a coup attempt against the Kremlin but a desperate measure amidst his escalating conflict with Russia’s military leadership.

Stanovaya is convinced that while Prigozhin may survive the crisis, his political future in Russia under Putin is non-existent.

U.S. intelligence suggests that Prigozhin had been mobilizing his forces near the Russian border for a while, implying that the revolt was planned. This contradicts Prigozhin’s assertion that his uprising was a response to an attack on his Ukrainian field camps on Friday by the Russian military, causing significant casualties among his troops, which the Defense Ministry refuted.

The implications of the brief rebellion for the war in Ukraine remain unclear. Western officials say morale is low among Russian troops, and Wagner’s forces were key to Russia’s only land victory in recent months, in Bakhmut.

On Monday, the U.K. Ministry of Defense announced that Ukraine has gained momentum in its fight around Bakhmut.

President Joe Biden of the U.S. and leaders of several of Ukraine’s European allies discussed the situation in Russia over the weekend. However, Western officials have kept their public comments subdued.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that the U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy reached out to Russian representatives to clarify that the U.S. was not involved in the revolt and saw it as an internal Russian matter. There has been no immediate confirmation from the U.S.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday that the events over the weekend were strictly an internal Russian matter. Spokesperson for U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Max Blain, echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing that the issues in Russia are primarily for Russia to resolve.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell believes the revolt indicates the war is shaking Russia’s political foundation. He commented, “The monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is biting him now. The monster is acting against his creator.”

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Lorne Cook in Brussels and Jill Lawless in London, writers for Big Big News, contributed to this report.

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For more coverage of the war in Ukraine, visit https://bigbignews.net/russia-ukraine-war.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Mercenary Revolt in Russia

More about Mercenary Revolt in Russia

• Wagner Group
• Russia-Ukraine Conflict
• Profile of Yevgeny Prigozhin
• Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Defense Minister