Counteroffensive? Probing defenses? What’s playing out on Ukraine’s battlefields?

What’s happening on the battlefields in Ukraine? While there is no official announcement of a counteroffensive from Kyiv, intense fighting is occurring in various sections of the front line, indicating that the long-awaited campaign may be underway.

Ukraine recently released a video showing soldiers in combat gear raising a finger to their lips, symbolizing the importance of silence in their plans. The video message states, “Plans love silence. There will be no start announcement,” followed by footage of warplanes in flight.

Although Moscow claims to have successfully repelled a Ukrainian attempt to breach its defenses, some pro-Kremlin military bloggers suggest that Kyiv’s troops have made quick gains, contradicting the official Russian narrative.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has escalated shelling of Russian positions and effectively resisted Russia’s efforts to expand its territorial gains beyond the eastern city of Bakhmut, which Ukraine recaptured in the war’s longest and bloodiest battle.

Paramilitary groups consisting of Russians fighting alongside the Ukrainian armed forces have also conducted incursions into Russian territory, specifically targeting the Belgorod region. These actions have resulted in significant damage to towns and villages near the border, leading to the evacuation of thousands of residents. Russian hawks have criticized the Kremlin for its perceived failure to respond resolutely to these attacks.

Furthermore, on May 30, a rare drone attack targeted Moscow, causing minimal damage but exposing vulnerabilities in the capital’s air defenses. Military analysts interpret these attacks as part of “shaping operations” aimed at testing Russian defenses, forcing Moscow to spread its forces thin and diverting attention from potential areas where Ukraine plans to launch its counteroffensive.

In response, the Russian military has intensified its strikes deep inside Ukraine, launching frequent drone and missile attacks on high-value military facilities. Russia claims to have destroyed the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense systems in Kyiv, struck the military intelligence headquarters, and targeted air bases and weapons stockpiles in various regions. However, these claims cannot be independently verified, and Ukrainian officials have remained cryptic about the extent of the damage.

Both sides have engaged in propaganda and disinformation campaigns to mislead and weaken each other. Ukraine hacked into TV broadcasts in Crimea to air a threatening military statement about the counteroffensive, while broadcasts in several Russian regions were hacked to disseminate a fake address by President Vladimir Putin, declaring martial law, nationwide mobilization, and massive evacuations. Kyiv accused Moscow of engaging in hybrid warfare and attempting to demoralize Ukrainians through misinformation.

Experts suggest that Ukraine has attempted to conceal its intentions by launching multiple attacks on different sectors of the front line, aiming to force Russia to spread its resources and divert attention from the main thrust of the counteroffensive. Analysts believe that Ukraine may seek to breach Russian defenses and establish a land corridor to the Sea of Azov coast, thereby breaking Moscow’s control over Crimea.

While reports suggest that the recent fighting in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions could signify the beginning of Ukraine’s major push, it is cautioned that a quick breakthrough and an end to the war should not be expected. The conflict is seen as a protracted effort requiring careful planning and sustained military support. Russia has fortified its forces, replenished ammunition stockpiles, and established complex defensive lines, making it more challenging for Ukraine to dislodge them.

It is anticipated that Ukraine will concentrate its newly formed brigades armed with Western weapons to launch a focused assault on Russian defenses in select areas, aiming to achieve numerical superiority and retain captured territory. However, the success of the offensive will depend on demonstrating enough battlefield progress to rally strategic support from the West. The ultimate objective of the counteroffensive is not to expel every Russian from Ukraine but to establish favorable conditions that could compel Russia to negotiate.

It is stressed that the international community, particularly Europe, must mobilize its military industries to provide increased support to Ukraine. This entails significant investment, with estimates suggesting that Europe should spend around 100 billion euros ($107 billion) annually for the next three years.

This report includes contributions from Big Big News writers Danica Kirka in London, Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, and Tara Copp in Washington.

For more coverage of the war in Ukraine, visit https://bigbignews.net/ukraine.

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