Ukraine trying to end battlefield stalemate in what may be start of counteroffensive

In an attempt to break the longstanding battlefield stalemate in southeast Ukraine, Ukrainian forces have launched a major offensive for the second consecutive day. This development is seen as a potential commencement of a much-anticipated counteroffensive after 15 months of war.

Russian officials have portrayed the Ukrainian attacks as the beginning of their counteroffensive, claiming that they have successfully thwarted at least one assault. While Kyiv authorities have acknowledged an increase in offensive operations and gains, they have also expressed skepticism about the accuracy of some Russian reports, labeling them as misinformation.

Vladimir Rogov, an official in the Russia-backed administration of Ukraine’s partially occupied Zaporizhzhia province, reported that fighting resumed on the border with the eastern Donetsk province after Russian defenses repelled a Ukrainian advance on the previous day. Rogov interpreted these military movements as an attempt by Ukraine to reach the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut off the land corridor to Crimea, which was annexed by Moscow in 2014. This strategy aims to divide Russian forces and strain supplies to Crimea, a critical military hub for Russia.

The United States, responding to Russia’s claims of repelling Ukrainian offensives, stated that they have no reason to believe that any Russian actions have disrupted ongoing or planned operations by Ukraine.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar confirmed that Ukrainian forces have made progress despite fierce resistance from the enemy. She emphasized that Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion encompasses counteroffensive actions as well. Malyar acknowledged that offensive operations are being conducted in certain areas.

Military expert Sir Richard Barrons, a former commander of the UK Joint Forces Command, stated that Ukraine is currently in the preliminary phase of its counteroffensive. He predicts that Ukraine will probe Russian defenses, identify weaknesses, and then concentrate its resources to break through and hold strategic positions. Barrons believes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will involve a series of strategic moves and could span several weeks.

Notably, Ukraine typically refrains from confirming its military operations until they are completed. A video released by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry showed soldiers making a silence gesture, indicating the importance of secrecy in military plans.

Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk provinces are among the four territories that President Vladimir Putin claimed as Russian territory in the previous year and where Moscow maintains partial control.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that it successfully repelled a “large-scale” assault in Donetsk province, resulting in significant Ukrainian casualties and the destruction of numerous tanks and combat vehicles. Independent verification of these claims is not available, and Ukrainian officials have not confirmed any retreat in the mentioned area.

In response to Russia’s claims, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Center for Strategic Communications stated that Russian forces are intensifying their information and psychological operations to demoralize Ukrainians and mislead both domestic and international audiences.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that Russia has reacted hysterically to every Ukrainian move and position, highlighting their increasing sensitivity to Ukrainian actions.

Recent military activities, such as drone attacks on Moscow, cross-border raids into Russia, and sabotage operations behind Russian lines, have raised concerns among Russian authorities. Analysts suggest that these actions could signal the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

In a separate incident, several regions of Russia experienced disruptions in their TV and radio broadcasts, with a fake message impersonating President Putin declaring a Ukrainian invasion in Russian territory. Such regions have previously been targeted by cross-border strikes during the war.

The timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive takes advantage of improved ground conditions following winter and the deployment of advanced Western weapons, coupled with the training of Ukrainian troops in their usage.

Ukraine’s Western allies have provided substantial military aid amounting to over 65 billion euros ($70 billion) to assist in the country’s defense. However, driving out Russian forces remains a significant challenge due to the extensive defensive lines established by Russia, including trenches, minefields, and anti-tank obstacles.

Analysts suggest that Ukraine may launch simultaneous offensives in various areas along the approximately 1,100-kilometer (nearly 700-mile) front line, where neither side has made significant gains for months.

In the heavily damaged city of Bakhmut, which witnessed the war’s longest and bloodiest battle, Ukrainian forces have reportedly made advancements and occupied strategic positions on dominating heights. Ukrainian officials have lauded the progress in the Bakhmut direction.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, claimed that Russian forces lost control of a portion of the village of Berkhovka outside Bakhmut. Prigozhin’s statements, however, are sometimes unreliable, and Ukrainian forces remain in control of many surrounding areas.

This article contains contributions from Danica Kirka in London.

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• Ukraine Crisis: What You Need to Know by Council on Foreign Relations
• Ukraine–Russia Relations by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• The Ukrainian Crisis: Russia’s ‘New’ Tools of Hybrid Warfare by Chatham House
• Russia’s Annexation of Crimea: A Violation of International Law by Human Rights Watch
• The Conflict in Ukraine: What Everyone Needs to Know by Serhii Plokhy
• Understanding Ukraine: The Problems Today and Some Historical Context by Andrew Wilson