Researchers State Climate Change Doubled Likelihood of Conditions Leading to Quebec’s Record Wildfires

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The probability of the torrid, arid weather that contributed to the unparalleled wildfire season in eastern Canada has more than doubled due to climate change. This situation led to thousands being evacuated from their residences and areas in the U.S. being engulfed in suffocating smoke. An analysis published on Tuesday disclosed these facts.

From the period of May through July, the intensity of the situation increased by 50% more than what it could have been without climate change, making the chances of experiencing similarly severe fire seasons at least seven times more probable, according to researchers.

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Yan Boulanger, a forest ecology research scientist at Natural Resources Canada, stated that the prevalent fires this year are a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Boulanger was part of the team of 16 researchers working on the analysis for World Weather Attribution, an initiative aimed at swiftly assessing climate change’s role following extreme weather occurrences.

Canada is witnessing its worst wildfire season ever recorded, with over 5,800 fires scorching more than 153,000 square kilometers (59,000 square miles) nationwide. In Quebec alone, over 52,000 square kilometers (20,000 square miles) has been consumed by flames, an area that is 176 times larger than the total burned last year.

Though the study was focused on Quebec, the rest of Canada also experienced record hot temperatures and drought conditions. Boulanger noted that these fire-prone conditions are escalating in severity, particularly in the West.

Ongoing wildfires in British Columbia have destroyed numerous buildings in a resort area and forced the evacuation of approximately 20,000 people from Yellowknife, the capital of the Northwest Territories.

The researchers assessed the fire weather’s peak intensity by examining real-world data using the Fire Weather Index. By comparing it with multiple simulations and historical weather data of a world without climate change, they concluded that this year’s fire-weather conditions were twice as likely.

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The research also evaluated the accumulated effect of weather conditions from January to July and found that the persistence of these conditions was seven times more probable.

Peter Reich, a forest ecologist unaffiliated with the study, commended the approach of examining the likelihood of these conditions occurring with or without climate change, rather than attempting to directly link the fires to climate change.

The findings reveal a 700% greater likelihood of intense fire weather due to climate change, according to Reich, a fact that he found profoundly alarming.

Although the analysis effectively evaluated extreme fire weather, Mike Flannigan, a professor for wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University, noted that it didn’t capture how widely it affected the whole nation, particularly the arid West.

Reich emphasized that the findings likely have global implications as hotter temperatures increase the air’s drying capacity and climate change heightens fire susceptibility and severity.

Early snowmelt and the warmest May-June period in over 80 years combined with minimal rainfall and windy conditions to dry out vegetation across Canada, making it more prone to wildfires.

Indigenous communities, which constitute 5% of Canada’s population, were disproportionately impacted by wildfires due to their isolation and location in more fire-prone areas.

Chief Casey Ratt of the Algonquins of Barriere Lake attributed the unprecedented forest fires to climate change, observing more intense summer heat and milder winters.

Scientists warn that risks will escalate as global warming continues. Flannigan stated that more widespread and hotter fires are “the new reality,” requiring novel strategies to counter increasingly perilous and intense fires.

“We’re really in uncharted territory,” Flannigan added, emphasizing the challenges ahead.

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• World Weather Attribution
• Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre
• Natural Resources Canada
• Thompson Rivers University in British Columbia
• AP’s Climate Initiative