This year’s Biden-Xi summit has better foundation but South China Sea and Taiwan risks won’t go away

The upcoming Biden-Xi summit, scheduled during the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, carries a more promising foundation compared to their previous meeting in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022. The past year has seen substantial progress in government-to-government talks, with recent weeks witnessing an expansion into cultural and business exchanges. Notably, this summit arises from a backdrop of improved relations, unlike the Bali meeting, which took place amid tensions sparked by a visit to Taiwan by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that this meeting benefits from a stronger foundation, both in substance and context. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that persistent issues, such as Taiwan and tensions in the South China Sea, loom as potential obstacles to improved bilateral ties. Unexpected incidents, like the incident involving a Chinese surveillance balloon earlier this year, can quickly derail progress.

While dialogue between the U.S. and China has intensified, fundamental disagreements in areas such as technology, defense, trade, and Taiwan persist. The Biden administration recently expanded restrictions on technology exports to China, reflecting the ongoing challenges. It is essential to recognize that increased communication does not negate the concurrent expansion of military preparations and high-tech deterrence measures by both nations.

Rather than anticipating major breakthroughs, the hope for this summit lies in setting the tone for meaningful dialogue on a range of issues in the coming months. However, numerous potential stumbling blocks exist along the way, making the path to improved U.S.-China relations a complex and challenging one.

The timeline of events over the past year highlights the ups and downs in U.S.-China relations, from diplomatic exchanges to military activities and economic negotiations. These developments underscore the intricacies of the relationship between the two superpowers and the need for cautious optimism in their interactions.

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