Speculation Peaks Over Nobel Peace Prize with Focus on Ukrainian Conflict, Iranian Protests, and Climate Change

The forthcoming announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize winner, who will join an esteemed group including Elie Wiesel, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, and the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, is set for Friday. Predictions about the recipient have reached a fever pitch.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has traditionally remained tight-lipped, offering no clues as to the possible laureates for this year, thereby leaving the public to engage in largely uninformed speculation.

Oddsmakers who accept wagers on likely awardees are currently favoring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and imprisoned Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. Nonetheless, accurately predicting the winner has proven to be an exceedingly difficult task, and bookmakers seldom get it right.

Selecting Zelenskyy might be perceived as unexpected, particularly given the ongoing war in Ukraine led by Russia, which has caused significant loss of life and devastation. Historically, the committee has selected political leaders involved in conflicts mainly after a peace agreement has been achieved.

Henrik Urdal, the director of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo and a frequently cited expert by major media outlets, opined that awarding a sitting national leader currently embroiled in an international conflict would be unlikely. Despite having no insider information, Urdal’s past predictions have been observed closely. He successfully forecasted the winners Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad in 2018 and Abiy Ahmed in 2019, although he hasn’t accurately picked a winner since.

Navalny has been discussed as a potential awardee in previous years. However, it remains to be seen whether the committee will favor him, especially since the last two prizes featured Russian recipients. The 2022 prize was divided among Ales Bialiatski, a human rights advocate from Belarus; Russia’s human rights organization Memorial, and Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties.

For this year, Urdal considers human rights activists Narges Mohammadi from Iran and Mahbouba Seraj from Afghanistan as top candidates. This year marks the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, making it a particularly relevant time for a prize centering on human rights, according to Urdal. Earlier in the year, Mohammadi was among three incarcerated Iranian journalists who were honored with the United Nations’ World Press Freedom Prize.

Norwegian public broadcaster NRK also speculated that the committee might consider honoring Mohammadi or other Iranian activists for their efforts in illuminating the plight of women in Iran, especially in the wake of nationwide protests last year.

If the committee chooses to honor an institution rather than an individual, Urdal believes that either the Netherlands-based International Court of Justice, which serves as a mediator in international conflicts, or the U.S-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group, which documents human rights abuses, would be deserving recipients.

Given that this year is set to be the warmest on record, some anticipate that the Nobel Peace Prize could be awarded to climate activists like Greta Thunberg from Sweden or Vanessa Nakate from Uganda. The committee has not allocated the prize to climate change endeavors since the 2007 recognition of former U.S. Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Although other Nobel prizes are selected and announced in Sweden, Alfred Nobel’s will specifies that the peace prize is to be determined in neighboring Norway. The five-member independent panel responsible for the decision is appointed by the Norwegian parliament.

For this year’s prize, the committee has disclosed receiving 351 nominations, comprising 259 for individuals and 92 for organizations. The official announcement will be made at 11 a.m. in Oslo (0900 GMT / 5 a.m. ET).

Earlier in the week, other Nobel Prizes were distributed: Jon Fosse received the literature prize; the chemistry award went to Moungi Bawendi of MIT, Louis Brus of Columbia University, and Alexei Ekimov of Nanocrystals Technology Inc; Hungarian-American Katalin Karikó and American Drew Weissman were honored with the Nobel Prize in medicine; and the physics prize was given to French-Swedish physicist Anne L’Huillier, French scientist Pierre Agostini, and Hungarian-born Ferenc Krausz.

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More about Nobel Peace Prize Speculation

• Norwegian Nobel Committee
• Peace Research Institute Oslo
• United Nations’ World Press Freedom Prize
• Universal Declaration of Human Rights 75th Anniversary
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• International Court of Justice
• Human Rights Data Analysis Group
• Afghan Women’s Network
• Center for Civil Liberties in Ukraine
• Memorial Human Rights Organization