Revolt by Russian Mercenaries Threatens Putin’s Authority and Future Challenges to his Rule

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In an unprecedented turn of events, President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long grip on power was brought into question over the weekend.

Although the rebellious Russian mercenary forces, known as Wagner troops, have retreated, Putin will struggle to maintain the façade of absolute control that he once projected. This development could potentially pave the way for further challenges to his rule within Russia and weaken the country’s position in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

With astonishing ease and a stated objective of ousting Russia’s defense minister, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner troops swiftly took control of Rostov-on-Don, a city with a population of 1.1 million, seizing the military headquarters. They continued their lightning-fast advance towards the capital without encountering significant resistance.

This incident underscores Prigozhin’s success in positioning himself as an opponent of a corrupt and inept elite, a fact that will not go unnoticed among those in Putin’s inner circle in the days to come.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Institute for Strategic Studies, commented, “This entire episode has instilled profound anxiety among Russia’s elites.” The actions of Putin’s former protégé “severely undermine confidence in Putin among influential figures around him.”

For several tense hours, the Kremlin appeared powerless as Wagner convoys traversed the country, breaking through sporadic roadblocks and shooting down military aircraft dispatched in a desperate attempt to halt their progress.

Given that the majority of Russian forces are engaged in the Ukrainian conflict, authorities hastily deployed a heterogeneous collection of troops and police to protect Moscow. They resorted to digging up roads and even demolishing bridges in a bid to slow down the advancing mercenaries.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff Chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov disappeared from public view on that critical day, further amplifying the sense of weakness and loss of control.

In an early Saturday televised address to the nation, a somber-looking Putin accused Prigozhin of betrayal and drew parallels between the situation and the collapse of the Russian empire in 1917.

However, hours later, Putin granted Prigozhin amnesty, with the condition that he goes into exile in Belarus.

While the Kremlin attempted to portray this deal as a wise move that prevented an imminent bloodbath, it represented an extraordinary compromise by a leader known for ruthlessly suppressing dissent and brutally silencing critics. Many within Putin’s Russia viewed his handling of the revolt as an unforgivable sign of weakness.

Viktor Alksnis, a retired Soviet air force colonel and a prominent hardliner critical of Putin’s rule and his management of the Ukrainian conflict, remarked, “Prigozhin demonstrated that it’s possible to capture a city of one million people with impunity, make demands of the country’s leadership, defy its orders, and march militarily towards Moscow while killing Russian soldiers along the way. Russia has taken a step closer to its inevitable and irreversible collapse.”

This blow to Putin adds to a series of Russian failures during the 16-month-long war in Ukraine.

Gould-Davies emphasized that the mutiny has destabilized the military and severely undermined troop morale, providing new opportunities for Ukraine as it initiates its counteroffensive. He noted, “This is a situation where Russians are killing Russians on Russian soil while Russia is attempting to contain a Ukrainian counteroffensive. This is not what Russia desires during wartime.”

While the agreement with Prigozhin may bring some Wagner troops under the control of the Defense Ministry—a demand previously rejected by the mercenary leader, which sparked the conflict—it offers only meager compensation for the extensive damage inflicted on government authority throughout this crisis.

Kirill Rogov, a political analyst with expertise in Putin’s politics, observed that the problem originated from the Russian president’s own actions. Putin had allowed Prigozhin’s feud with top military leaders to persist as part of a strategy to shift blame for the military blunders in Ukraine and manipulate members of the elite against each other, believing he could maintain complete control over Prigozhin.

“In Jewish folklore, the creator of the golem always thinks he can stop it, making it increasingly formidable to intimidate others,” Rogov remarked in a commentary. In the end, Putin did manage to stop Prigozhin but at a steep cost.

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This report includes contributions from Danica Kirka, a writer at Big Big News in London.

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