Niger’s neighbors and the UN seek to deescalate tensions with last-minute diplomacy

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The situation in Niger is currently marked by uncertainty as neighboring countries and the United Nations engage in last-minute diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions. The question arises whether a regional bloc will carry out its military threat to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum or if diplomatic negotiations will prevail. This uncertainty has persisted for almost two weeks following the overthrow of Niger’s democratically elected leader by mutinous soldiers.

The West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, had set a deadline for the mutinous soldiers to release and reinstall Bazoum, with the threat of using force if not complied with. ECOWAS members, along with representatives from the United Nations and the African Union, were anticipated to participate in talks in the capital, Niamey, on Tuesday. These discussions come after acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s attempts to engage with the coup leaders were met with resistance. She described Bazoum as being under “virtual house arrest” and the coup leaders as unresponsive to negotiations for restoring constitutional rule.

The talks are expected to continue throughout the week, with ECOWAS planning another meeting on Thursday in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, to address the situation. Niger’s significance as a partner for the U.S. and European countries in countering jihadi violence has complicated international responses to the coup. If classified as a coup by the U.S., Niger could lose substantial military assistance and aid.

In a region that has witnessed multiple coups, the ECOWAS response to Niger is seen as an attempt to change the pattern of influence by imposing sanctions and threatening military force. However, the junta leading the coup appears uninterested in dialogue and has taken measures like closing the country’s airspace. The time window for military intervention is seen as closing, leaving ECOWAS and other parties searching for alternative solutions.

The junta, led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, has tapped into anti-colonial sentiments and has even sought assistance from the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Despite pro-junta rallies and displays of support, the junta’s actual level of public backing remains uncertain.

As the region debates the way forward, jihadi groups in Niger have exploited the chaos and reduced foreign military presence to their advantage. France’s suspension of military operations has provided these groups with greater freedom of movement. Amid this complex situation, the jubilation of jihadis and their desire for ECOWAS intervention to reach the capital, Niamey, adds another layer of complexity to the crisis.

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