Key Considerations for Poland’s Upcoming Parliamentary Election and Associated Stakes

4

Introduction

Poland is set to conduct an election this coming Sunday, an event that will significantly influence the trajectory of the European Union’s fifth largest country by population and its sixth largest economy. The election will either grant the right-leaning Law and Justice party an unparalleled third term in office, or offer a coalition of opposition parties sufficient public backing to depose the current administration, which has been in power for eight years. Concurrently, a referendum covering various topics such as migration and the retirement age will also take place, a move seen by the opposition as an attempt to galvanize the ruling party’s base.

The Electoral Process

Eligibility and Voting

Approximately 29 million Polish citizens who are 18 years or older are entitled to vote. The voters will be selecting 460 representatives for the Sejm, the lower house of Parliament, and 100 for the Senate, with both serving for four-year terms.

Voting Stations and Timing

Over 31,000 polling stations across Poland will be operational from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. (0500-1900 GMT) on Election Day. Additionally, over 400 international voting stations have been established.

Exit Polls and Results

Ipsos, a global polling research organization, will release exit poll data on state and commercial television channels TVP, TVN, and Polsat when the polling stations close at 9 p.m. (1900 GMT). The expected margin of error is approximately ±2 percentage points.

Election Thresholds

Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the total votes to gain representation in Parliament, while coalitions require a minimum of 8% of the votes.

Monitoring

Affiliates of political parties will oversee the election process at polling locations. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is also deploying a limited election observation mission.

Official Results

The State Electoral Commission is expected to release the official results within two to three days following the elections.

Opinion Polls

Current polls suggest that the ruling Law and Justice party will likely obtain the most votes but will fall short of a Parliamentary majority.

The Referendum

Running in tandem with the Parliamentary election, a referendum with four questions will be presented to voters. The questions relate to the acceptance of migrants, the erection of a new border wall with Belarus, the modification of the retirement age, and the divestiture of state assets. For the referendum to be legally enforceable, it requires participation from over 50% of the eligible electorate. Some opposition entities are advocating for a boycott of the referendum.

The Political Landscape

Major Parties and Coalitions

Law and Justice

Led by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the Law and Justice party has been governing Poland since 2015. The party has implemented more restrictive abortion laws and has been in opposition to EU migrant-sharing plans. If re-elected, it promises to continue these policies among others.

Civic Coalition

Dominantly comprised of the Civic Platform party and led by Donald Tusk, this centrist coalition promises to mend relationships with the EU and to reverse many of the government’s contentious policies.

Third Way

A centrist coalition made up of the Poland 2050 party and the agrarian Polish People’s Party, PSL. This coalition aims to liberalize the stringent abortion laws through a national referendum and promises to increase spending on health care and education.

Confederation Liberty and Independence

A far-right coalition opposed to EU membership, its leaders have been noted for making statements against minority groups. The coalition promises lower taxes and more stringent border controls.

New Left

This Social Democratic party aims for church-state separation and liberalization of the abortion laws. It also promises affordable housing for younger citizens.

Formation of the New Government

The Polish Constitution mandates the President to convene the new Parliament within 30 days post-election. The President then designates a political leader, usually from the winning party, to form a new Cabinet. The prime minister-designate has 14 days to secure majority support in the Sejm.

Stakes Involved

Donald Tusk has declared this election to be the most crucial since the end of the communist era in 1989, largely because it will determine Poland’s future role within the EU. While the current government has no plans to exit the EU, it does intend to limit its influence. All parties maintain a commitment to NATO, viewing it as an essential defense against potential Russian aggression.

This comprehensive guide aims to offer essential details for understanding the intricacies of Poland’s upcoming parliamentary election and its long-term implications.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Poland’s parliamentary election

More about Poland’s parliamentary election

• Polish Parliamentary Elections: An Overview
• The Law and Justice Party: Poland’s Current Ruling Party
• Poland’s Civic Coalition: Who Are They?
• The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Role in Elections
• Polish Constitution: Electoral Process Explained
• European Union and Poland: A Complex Relationship
• Poland’s NATO Membership: Significance and Implications
• Voter Eligibility and Participation in Polish Elections
• Poland’s Referendum Questions: A Detailed Look