Icy flood that killed 31 in India’s northeast had been feared for years

The recent tragic event in India’s Himalayan north, where a glacial lake overflowed and breached a dam, resulting in the loss of at least 31 lives and leaving 100 individuals still missing, had long been a feared disaster. The catastrophe unfolded in the early hours of Wednesday when the immense force of water overflowed the high mountain lake, ultimately breaking through the concrete of a significant hydroelectric dam downstream. This deluge cascaded into the valley below, wreaking havoc and forcing thousands of people to abandon their homes.

The precise trigger for this devastating flood remains unclear, though experts have pointed to factors such as heavy rainfall and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in nearby Nepal on the preceding Tuesday as potential contributors.

This tragedy is the latest in a series of calamities to strike northeast India, which has experienced an unusually intense monsoon season this year. Just two months prior, nearly 50 individuals lost their lives in flash floods and landslides in Himachal Pradesh state. In July, record-breaking rains in northern India claimed the lives of over 100 people.

The Teesta 3 dam, the largest in Sikkim state, has been under scrutiny since its construction six years ago. Its controversial design and placement were part of India’s efforts to expand hydropower energy production. However, local activists had long voiced concerns about the dangers posed by extreme weather resulting from climate change and the dam’s apparent lack of adequate safety measures.

A report from the Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority in 2019 had labeled the lake that the Teesta 3 dam was meant to contain as “highly vulnerable” to flooding, warning of the risk of flash floods capable of breaching dams. Unfortunately, neither the dam’s operator nor local agencies responsible for dam safety have responded to requests for comment.

The rising levels of Lhonak Lake, fed by rapidly melting glaciers due to climate change, had also raised alarm bells. A 2021 study from researchers in India, the United States, and Switzerland had warned of the increasing likelihood of a catastrophic flood due to rising waters and the steep terrain surrounding the lake.

The Teesta 3 hydropower project, which was built on the Teesta River at a cost of $1.5 billion over nine years, has a capacity of 1,200 megawatts, enough to power 1.5 million Indian homes, and began operations in 2017. Surprisingly, there were no early warning systems in place, even though the risk of a glacier overflow was known.

In response to this disaster, India’s National Disaster Management Agency plans to establish early warning systems for real-time alerts at most of the country’s 56 known at-risk glacial lakes. However, critics argue that authorities failed to apply the lessons learned from a similar dam breach in Uttarakhand in 2021 that claimed 81 lives, allowing a tragically familiar disaster to unfold.

Gyatso Lepcha, the general secretary of Affected Citizens of Teesta, an environmental organization based in Sikkim, lamented the situation, stating that they had foreseen this tragedy and called for a comprehensive safety review of all dams in the state.

The Himalayan region of India is prone to landslides and floods during the monsoon season, which is becoming more frequent due to global warming. Despite these risks, the Indian government has approved numerous new hydroelectric dams in the region to meet ambitious clean energy goals. However, the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events driven by climate change put these dams and the people living downstream at significant risk.

While a dam safety law was enacted in 2021 to require operators and local governments to plan for emergencies, the Teesta-3 dam does not appear to be monitored for safety by India’s chief dam regulator, the Central Water Commission.

In the wake of Wednesday’s floods, more than 2,000 people have been rescued, with relief camps set up for over 22,000 affected individuals. Nevertheless, the devastation includes the loss of 11 bridges in the Lachan Valley, damage to pipelines, and the destruction of over 270 houses in four districts. The army has stepped in, providing medical assistance and phone connectivity to affected areas, while also constructing temporary bridges to deliver much-needed food supplies. The road to recovery in this region will undoubtedly be long and challenging.

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• Disaster management in India