Here comes El Nino: It’s early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world

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Meteorologists have announced the formation of an early and robust El Nino, which is expected to significantly impact worldwide weather patterns and contribute additional natural heat to an already warming Earth.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Nino advisory, signaling the arrival of this climatic phenomenon, which possesses unique characteristics compared to its predecessors.

Unlike most El Ninos, this one has formed a month or two ahead of schedule, providing it with ample opportunity to strengthen. Climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecast office, stated that there is a 56% chance of it being classified as a strong event and a 25% chance of reaching supersized proportions.

Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University, emphasized that if this El Nino develops into the largest category of events, it will break historical records for the shortest recurrence time. Consequently, communities will have less time to recover from damages to infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems such as coral reefs.

While typical El Ninos suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, providing relief to coastal regions from Texas to New England, Central America, and the Caribbean after years of heightened storm activity, this time, forecasters do not expect the same outcome due to record-breaking temperatures in the Atlantic. The unusually warm waters will counteract the typical El Nino winds that normally weaken hurricanes.

Kristopher Karnauskas, an associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, explained that hurricanes thrive and intensify when they encounter warm seawater, and the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean are currently experiencing exceptionally high temperatures. Consequently, NOAA and other experts predict an Atlantic hurricane season that is close to average.

Historically, strong El Ninos have been associated with record-breaking global warmth, such as the occurrences in 2016 and 1998. This year’s early onset of El Nino further raises the likelihood of setting a record for the warmest year, especially when combined with the background warming caused by climate change, according to Marshall Shepherd, a meteorology professor at the University of Georgia.

On the flip side, El Nino’s cooling effects exacerbate drought conditions in the U.S. West and intensify the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reversal of some extreme weather patterns from the past three years, such as droughts, can be expected. Michelle L’Heureux noted that areas that have suffered from profound drought, like South America, may experience a shift toward wetter conditions, although flooding is undesirable. Therefore, certain regions could potentially benefit from the arrival of El Nino.

During the upcoming months of the northern summer, the impact of El Nino will primarily be felt in the Southern Hemisphere, with minimal effects in North America, according to L’Heureux. El Nino is projected to cause drier and warmer conditions in Australia, northern South America (Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela), while Southeast Argentina and parts of Chile are likely to experience increased precipitation. India and Indonesia are also expected to be drier until August due to the influence of El Nino.

Although El Nino typically results in fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, it often leads to an increased number of tropical cyclones in the Pacific, L’Heureux explained.

The most significant effects of El Nino are anticipated in hotter and drier regions of Indonesia and adjacent parts of Asia. Additionally, areas in southern Africa are likely to experience dry conditions. On the other hand, drought-stricken countries in northeast Africa can anticipate beneficial rainfall after enduring prolonged droughts due to La Nina events.

While some economic studies suggest that El Nino has a positive impact on the economies of the United States and Europe, it can be costly for countries like Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Recent estimates put the global cost of El Nino damage in the trillions of dollars, with the World Bank reporting a $45 billion toll during the 1997-1998 event.

Despite certain benefits, the United States also faces hazards from El Nino. Increased rainfall in California, Oregon, and Washington heightens the risk of landslides and flash flooding in these regions, according to Azhar Ehsan, an associate research scientist at Columbia University. Proper consideration and management of these hazards are essential, even as El Nino brings benefits such as water resource replenishment.

(Note: This revised text aims to provide a more concise and coherent summary of the original article, with some minor rephrasing and adjustments made for clarity.)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about El Nino’s Impact on Global Weather Patterns

More about El Nino’s Impact on Global Weather Patterns

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): El Nino Information
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO): El Nino and La Nina
• NASA Earth Observatory: El Nino and Climate Prediction
• National Geographic: Understanding El Nino
• Climate.gov: El Nino Basics