US fears Canada-India row over Sikh activist’s killing could upend strategy for countering China

The United States is closely monitoring a dispute between Canada and India, with some officials expressing apprehension that it could disrupt the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region aimed at countering China’s expanding influence. While the Biden administration has publicly stated that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s allegations regarding the potential involvement of the Indian government in the killing of a Sikh separatist near Vancouver are a bilateral matter, behind the scenes, there is a growing belief among U.S. officials that Trudeau’s claims hold merit.

The U.S. officials are concerned that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might be adopting tactics to silence opposition figures on foreign soil, similar to strategies employed by countries like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and North Korea when faced with similar allegations.

What amplifies these concerns is the potential impact of the Canada-India dispute on one of the Biden administration’s core foreign policy objectives: the Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s assertiveness in the region. Both Canada and India play pivotal roles in U.S.-led efforts to present a unified and democratic front against China’s increasing influence. Canada, a key NATO ally, shares the longest undefended border in the world with the United States and is located in the Pacific region.

The administration has placed significant emphasis on dealing with China as a competitor and a possible international threat. It has intensified diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific, including forming a leaders group that includes Australia, Japan, India, and the United States, commonly known as the Quad. President Joe Biden has regarded the Quad as a critical element of this endeavor.

The worst-case scenario envisioned by U.S. policymakers is that the Canada-India dispute escalates similarly to the 2018 row between Britain and Russia over the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England. In that case, Britain accused Russia of an assassination attempt and expelled Russian diplomats, garnering support from NATO allies and European partners. The U.S. also took action in solidarity with Britain.

Concerns have arisen that Canada might follow a similar path and request mass diplomatic expulsions, which the U.S. would likely have to comply with. This could lead to a rupture in U.S.-Indian relations and potentially affect India’s cooperation with the Quad.

Although the situation has not reached a critical point yet, it remains a matter of concern for U.S. officials. Intelligence from the “Five Eyes” alliance, comprising Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S., has supported the allegation of Indian involvement in the murder. Recent developments, including India’s request for Canada to remove a significant number of its diplomats, have escalated the confrontation, despite Trudeau’s attempts to de-escalate tensions.

In conclusion, the Canada-India dispute has drawn the attention of U.S. officials due to its potential to disrupt the Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s influence, underscoring the delicate diplomatic situation and the need for careful monitoring.

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More about Indo-Pacific Strategy

• Canada-India Tensions – Reuters article on Canada’s expulsion of an Indian diplomat amid tensions over the Sikh activist’s killing.
• U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy – Information from the U.S. Department of State on the Indo-Pacific strategy.
• Quad Leaders Group – Overview of the Quad, a key component of the Indo-Pacific strategy, by the Council on Foreign Relations.
• Skripal Poisoning Case – Background information on the 2018 Skripal poisoning case, which is mentioned as a potential scenario in the text.