For Putin, winning reelection could be easier than resolving the many challenges facing Russia

A: President Putin faces multiple challenges, including a stalemated war in Ukraine, unyielding Western pressure, economic problems, and intensifying infighting among the ruling elite.

A: The war in Ukraine, initially expected to be a quick campaign, has turned into a grinding war of attrition, incurring significant personnel losses and draining Russia’s resources. Russia now faces a stalemate that could extend for months.

A: While Western sanctions haven’t dealt a knockout blow, they have curtailed revenue from key exports and limited access to Western technology. Additionally, 300 billion euros of Russian Central Bank reserves have been blocked in the West.

A: Russia has strengthened ties with China, shifted energy exports to China and India, and found new import channels to circumvent U.S. and EU restrictions on technology. However, this growing dependence on China could limit Russia’s maneuvering.

A: Russia’s economic output fell under Western sanctions, but it’s officially forecast to expand this year, driven by increased government spending related to the war. However, inflation, a depreciating ruble, and labor shortages are ongoing issues.

A: Despite high approval ratings, Putin’s rule faced a serious challenge during a mutiny by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin’s control was also tested by a riot in Dagestan, highlighting political unrest and dysfunction within the system.

A: The death of Prigozhin and his top lieutenants in a mysterious plane crash was seen as an act of vengeance that helped restore Putin’s credibility. However, the fragility of Kremlin control has become evident, especially in rapidly unfolding situations.

A: While Putin’s reelection seems likely, the challenges he faces could erode stability in Russia. The war in Ukraine, Western pressure, economic troubles, and internal divisions pose significant hurdles for his next term.