Drought Intensifies in Central US: Corn Crops Under Stress, Rivers Dwindling

On May 8, Mike Shane’s farm in Illinois, a sprawling 200-acre property near Peoria, received a decent amount of rain just after corn planting. However, the downpours have been noticeably infrequent since then.

Storms have frequently approached the area only to dissipate before providing much-needed water to Shane’s land. “They manage to cross the Mississippi River but then vanish,” said the 47-year-old farmer, lamenting his now-struggling corn crops. If considerable rain does not grace his land soon, Shane fears the worst for his corn crop.

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After winter showers alleviated drought conditions in the West, the mid-section of the country is now grappling with extreme dryness. Stressed crops, low river levels, and anxious cities and towns are eagerly awaiting a shift in weather patterns.

Experts claim that this drought in the central U.S. is the most severe since at least 2012 and, in some regions, it rivals the 1988 drought that ravaged corn, wheat, and soybean crops. Despite relatively mild temperatures this spring and early summer, rainfall has been woefully inadequate.

Data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, managed by the federal government and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, indicates that nearly half of Kansas is experiencing extreme or exceptional drought conditions — the highest possible categorization. Over 25% of Nebraska is under extreme drought, with 13% in exceptional drought. Dry conditions also envelop Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Missouri, and Kentucky.

Evidence from two satellites measuring Earth’s water storage changes show that the frequency and severity of droughts and rainfall are increasing due to fossil fuel combustion and other human activities that emit greenhouse gases. The findings were published in Nature Water in March.

Adam Hartman, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, noted that parts of the central U.S. have been suffering from extreme drought since winter. Meanwhile, sudden “flash droughts” have sprung up in other states over the past 2-3 months.

This prolonged dry spell has severely depleted topsoil and subsoil moisture levels, lowered groundwater reserves, and decreased stream flows, according to Hartman.

Crops are indeed paying the price. The U.S. Department of Agriculture now considers only half of the U.S. corn crop to be in good or excellent condition — the lowest percentage since 1988. Nearly two-thirds of the nation’s corn-growing regions are drought-affected.

“This indicates that stress on these crops is widespread throughout the Corn Belt,” said Krista Swanson, an economist for the National Corn Growers Association.

If rainfall remains scarce, Swanson estimates total yield could decline by roughly 1 billion bushels from the initially projected 16.7 billion bushels.

Although this deficit may not directly increase consumer costs as most corn is utilized for feed, ethanol, or export, the primary burden falls on the farmers. As Swanson explained, “Their cost-per-acre remains constant irrespective of their yield.”

Water levels in rivers are also shrinking. The Mississippi River, particularly from southern Illinois downwards, is alarmingly low in several areas. Despite reaching or nearing record low-water marks last fall, the river managed to recover to flood levels in the spring before declining again due to the ongoing drought.

Lynn Muench, a senior vice president for the American Waterways Operators, reported voluntary reductions in barge capacity on parts of the Mississippi River due to the low water levels. Although this curtails profitability, operators are adapting to the situation, said Muench.

Despite the challenges, Colin Wellenkamp, executive director of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, reported that many communities remain hopeful. However, he warned that if the drought persists through July, the situation could drastically worsen.

Back on Shane’s farm, the corn, usually towering at 10 feet by this time, barely reaches his waist. The leaves are yellowing and there’s uncertainty about the ears of corn developing at all.

Still, farmers are not giving in to despair. Swanson pointed out that the El Nino weather pattern, currently in effect, usually heralds more rainfall and improved growing conditions in the central U.S.

“There’s a possibility of more favorable weather in the next two months, which could make a positive difference,” she said.

However, even with El Nino, Hartman stated that below-normal rainfall is expected for the summer months. “This drought could potentially persist for a while,” warned Hartman.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Central US Drought

More about Central US Drought

• U.S. Drought Monitor
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center
• National Corn Growers Association
• Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative
• American Waterways Operators