Drone Photos and Information Indicate Russia’s Involvement in Ukraine Dam Destruction

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According to exclusive drone photos and information obtained by The Big Big News, Russia possessed the means, motive, and opportunity to bring down a Ukrainian dam that collapsed while under Russian control earlier this month.

The drone images captured above the Kakhovka Dam, shared with the AP, reveal the presence of an explosive-laden vehicle on top of the structure. Additionally, two officials have confirmed that Russian troops were stationed at a crucial area within the dam, precisely where the explosion occurred, as claimed by the Ukrainians. The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment.

The catastrophic destruction of the dam resulted in deadly flooding, jeopardized crops in the world’s breadbasket, endangered drinking water supplies for thousands of people, and unleashed an environmental catastrophe. Ukrainian commanders assert that the dam’s collapse also thwarted their plans to retake Russian positions in an ongoing counteroffensive.

Although both sides have accused each other of destroying the dam, the Russian claims, including missile strikes or explosive demolition, fail to explain the seismic impact registered in the region, indicating an explosion of significant magnitude.

Russia has seemingly benefited from the subsequent massive flooding, despite its occupied territories also suffering. The consequences of the flooding may have been more extensive than anticipated.

The Dnieper River, which runs through the region, serves as the frontline between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the Russians in control of the dam itself.

Two Ukrainian commanders, positioned at different locations in the area, revealed to the AP that the rising waters rapidly engulfed their positions as well as the Russian positions, causing equipment damage. This forced them to restart their planning and face the challenge of covering a much greater distance, all while navigating through mud. One commander spoke anonymously to openly express the extent of the problems caused by the rising waters.

According to the commander, “It’s a regular practice to mine places before a retreat.” Another Ukrainian commander, Illia Zelinskyi, affirmed this statement, saying, “In this context, their actions were intended to disrupt our supply chains and impede our crossing of the Dnieper.”

In recent weeks, Ukraine’s armed forces have reported limited progress in their counteroffensive to regain territory seized by Russian forces since the invasion in February 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin indirectly acknowledged the advantage gained by his forces, although he continued to deny Russia’s responsibility, stating, “This may sound strange, but nonetheless. Unfortunately, this disrupted their counteroffensive in that area.” He further expressed his belief that an attack on that specific location would have been to Russia’s advantage.

The Kakhovka Dam is part of a series of Soviet-era dams along the Dnieper River designed to withstand enormous force, including thousands of pounds of explosives. These dams were constructed in response to the infamous World War II “Dambusters” raids that targeted German dams. For example, the destruction of the Möhne dam in 1943 required five specially-made “bouncing bombs,” each weighing 4.5 tons, according to archives from the Imperial War Museum.

It is highly unlikely that Ukraine possesses a single missile with the power to cause such damage. According to Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, Ukrainian missiles are believed to have a payload capacity of no more than approximately 1,100 pounds (500 kilograms).

Moreover, it seems implausible that Ukrainian commandos could have successfully infiltrated the dam with thousands of pounds of explosives. The dam was fully controlled by Russian soldiers, both internally and externally, for several months.

As recently as the day before the collapse on June 6, Russian forces had established a firing position within the dam’s crucial machine room. Ukrhydroenergo, the agency responsible for operating the dam system, confirmed that the explosion originated in this room. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had already mentioned in October 2022 that the dam was mined.

Corroborating this information, Zelinskyi, who is unrelated to the Ukrainian president, stated that the explosion appeared to have occurred in the area of the machine room. An American official, familiar with the intelligence, also confirmed the presence of Russian forces in that location. The American official spoke anonymously to discuss sensitive material.

The Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank monitoring Russian actions in Ukraine since the war began, has concluded that “the balance of evidence, reasoning, and rhetoric suggests that the Russians deliberately damaged the dam.”

Days before the single explosion, Ukrainian military drone footage depicted numerous Russian soldiers encamped along the Dnieper, seemingly relaxed as they moved between the dam and their position, indicating their confidence in their control of the area, particularly the dam, which held significant strategic importance.

The photos, obtained from Ukrainian drone footage and dated May 28, showed a vehicle parked on the dam with its roof cut open, revealing large barrels. One barrel appeared to have a land mine attached to its lid, with a cable extending toward the Russian-held side of the river. The duration of the car’s presence remains unclear.

A Ukrainian special forces communications official, noting the rigged appearance of the car, explained that its purpose was twofold: to impede any Ukrainian advance on the dam and to amplify the planned explosion originating from the machine room, thereby causing extensive damage to the dam’s top section. However, the car bomb itself would not have been sufficient to destroy the dam. The official spoke anonymously to safeguard operational secrecy.

The explosion, detected at 2:54 a.m. local time, registered on Norwegian seismic monitors at nearly magnitude 2. To put this into perspective, the catastrophic explosion at Beirut’s port, resulting in numerous casualties and widespread devastation, registered at 3.3 on the seismic scale and involved at least 500 tons of explosives.

Within minutes, water from the Kakhovka reservoir surged through the shattered dam, submerging the river’s sandbar islands and causing extensive flooding in southern Ukraine, including Russian-controlled territory.

Shortly after the dam’s collapse, some experts initially attributed it to the deteriorating condition of the structure. However, the section of roadbed that appeared visibly damaged, due to explosives detonated by Russian forces to block a Ukrainian offensive the previous autumn, remained intact even after most of the dam had collapsed.

Ukraine’s intelligence service released an intercepted conversation purportedly between a Russian soldier and another person, where the soldier admitted, “Our sabotage groups were there. They wanted to create a scare with the dam. It didn’t quite go according to plan.”

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Hinnant reported from Paris. Aamer Madhani in Washington and Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed.

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More about Ukraine dam destruction

• The Big Big News
• AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine
• Imperial War Museum archives
• Institute for the Study of War
• NORSAR – Norwegian earthquake monitoring agency