Wagner Aircraft Crash Appears Calculated to Convey a Definite Message to Potential Kremlin Adversaries

69

Upon Yevgeny Prigozhin’s initiation of his armed insurrection challenging the Kremlin, Western officials prognosticated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would embark on a quest for retribution against the leader of the mercenary faction.

Exactly two months after the event that Putin denounced as a “stab in the back” and “treason,” those predictions now seem to have materialized in a relentless and menacing manner.

Although the demise of Prigozhin and his principal deputies from the private military contractor Wagner, in the plane crash northwest of Moscow that occurred on Wednesday, has yet to be officially confirmed by authorities, the incident has sent an immediate shiver through Russian governmental circles.

Even amidst the prevailing uncertainty, the message conveyed was unmistakable: Anyone daring to defy the Kremlin’s authority will meet their demise.

Ongoing investigations persist at the crash site, where a plane presumably transporting Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed. (August 24)

Yet, even as the crash contributes to the restoration of an image of Kremlin control that had been severely marred by the Prigozhin rebellion, it has simultaneously propagated bewilderment and indignation among staunch Russian hardliners. This possibly foreshadows further challenges to Putin, as the Ukrainian conflict enters its 18th month.

Many observers perceive these events as indicative of a deepening governmental crisis.

“It’s not a functional state, nor is it representative of Russia. It’s akin to a sprawling mafia, wherein its various facets are in collision,” remarked Dmitry Oreshkin, a faculty member at Free University in Riga, Latvia.

While the cause of the crash is unlikely to be promptly disclosed, eyewitnesses reported that Prigozhin’s plane plummeted amidst a voluminous plume of smoke, contorting wildly and losing a wing. A spectator noted that the aircraft “exploded in mid-air” and seemed to have “shed something while in flight.”

Certain segments of Russian media speculated that a bomb could have been responsible for the downing. Prigozhin’s supporters proclaimed via their messaging app platforms that the aircraft had been shot down by an anti-aircraft defense system, candidly accusing authorities of orchestrating an assassination. None of these allegations were substantiated by evidence.

Oreshkin suggested that the downing of a private jet appeared to be a potent statement aimed at intimidating Russian elites into compliance.

“This incident serves as a demonstration,” he opined. “Prigozhin could have been discreetly eliminated, succumbing to a heart attack, much like numerous previous adversaries of Putin or his high-ranking officers. However, it appears this was intended to signify unwavering dominance over the situation.”

Other critics of the Kremlin have previously perished due to poisonings, events described by both Russian opposition figures and the West as targeted assassinations sanctioned by Putin. Nevertheless, none had met their end in an aviation accident.

Former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov asserted that the initial failure to take punitive measures against Prigozhin had eroded Putin’s authority, thus extending “an overt invitation to potential rebels and insurgents.”

He speculated that the delay in action might have arisen because Prigozhin was effectively shielded by his security apparatus, and Russian intelligence agencies were waiting for the optimal opportunity. “They could have been working on this for an extended period and only now found the right chance,” posited Gallyamov.

Although acknowledging the absence of concrete facts, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock noted, “The global gaze naturally turns to the Kremlin when a disgraced former confidant of Putin suddenly plummets from the sky, a mere two months after his attempted uprising.”

Foreign officials had long believed that Prigozhin’s days were numbered subsequent to the mutiny, given Putin’s reputed unwillingness to forgive the humiliation.

In the words of CIA Director William Burns, “revenge is a dish best served cold” for Putin, characterizing the Russian leader as “an ultimate advocate of retribution.”

In the weeks following the rebellion, Prigozhin’s aircraft was tracked traversing Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Belarus. During this time, Wagner escalated its activities in Africa, a surge in engagements that prompted speculation regarding Putin’s perceived value of the 62-year-old mercenary leader, who had secured lucrative Kremlin contracts over the years.

Earlier this week, Prigozhin released a video purportedly filmed in an undisclosed desert location, asserting that Wagner was “contributing to Russia’s greatness across all continents, and enhancing Africa’s liberty.” His mercenaries had been particularly active in several African nations in recent years, extending Russia’s influence and capitalizing on mineral wealth.

Certain Russian media sources suggested that Prigozhin may have aspired to persuade Putin to entrust him with the expansion of these ventures, even though the Defense Ministry apparently sought to assume control. Others noted that he might have breached an agreement with the Kremlin by attempting to continue his business undertakings in Russia and by boasting about his exploits in Africa in the aforementioned video.

Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Endowment commented that luring an enemy or a traitor closer prior to their downfall was a characteristic tactic of dictatorial regimes, akin to the methods of criminal syndicates.

Oreshkin postulated that authorities might have opted for the plane crash to decapitate Wagner in order to neutralize any potential threat posed by Prigozhin’s subordinates.

“It is evident that eliminating a singular individual is insufficient; eradicating his key associates is imperative, as they likely had a contingency plan in case of his demise,” he noted. “Thus, the most ideal solution is the comprehensive elimination that indeed transpired.”

Among those listed on the flight manifest were Dmitry Utkin, a former military intelligence officer who directed Wagner’s operations, and Valery Chekalov, its security chief.

Alexei Mukhin, a pro-Kremlin political expert, contended that the crash bestowed upon Putin a “demonic aura” that his adversaries would be unable to disregard, further asserting that Kremlin opponents abroad would experience an escalating sense of vulnerability.

The occurrence signified a methodical endeavor to eradicate any form of dissent within the ranks.

While the plane crash unquestionably conveyed an impression of unwavering strength, Oreshkin cautioned that its consequences could be multifaceted, engendering confusion among ardent supporters of Wagner’s role in Ukraine and those who admired Prigozhin’s critique of the military hierarchy.

Roman Saponkov, a military blogger and advocate of Prigozhin, predicted “catastrophic consequences.”

“Those who issued the order fail to grasp the sentiments within the military,” he asserted.

Certain Kremlin adherents endeavored to shift responsibility for the crash onto Ukraine, devoid of substantiating evidence.

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst, alleged that Kyiv authorities were responsible in an effort to galvanize support for Ukraine’s Independence Day, celebrated on Thursday.

“It was Ukraine that eliminated Prigozhin,” Markov proclaimed. “Prigozhin was not a concern for Putin.”

Nonetheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refuted any connection of his country to the incident, stating, “Everyone knows who is responsible.”

Wagner had constituted one of Russia’s most proficient elements but had ceased its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict after capturing the eastern stronghold of Bakhmut in May. The remaining remnants are expected to be assimilated into the Russian military, thus diminishing much of their operational capability.

“It was the most adept Russian military unit engaged in the Ukrainian conflict,” Gallyamov remarked. “It is quite evident that now, as it falls under the jurisdiction of inept military leadership, Wagner will cease to distinguish itself.”

Although Prigozhin’s demise, if confirmed, might not exert an immediate impact on the battleground, it mirrors an intensification of internal discord within Russia. This escalation could potentially foster increasing public disillusionment and ultimately weaken Moscow’s position in the ongoing conflict.

Initial hopes of triumph in Ukraine have given way to mounting fatigue among the Russian populace. “Presently, a phase of disappointment emerges, which will persist for several months and appear irreversible,” cautioned Oreshkin.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Kremlin’s Authority

More about Kremlin’s Authority

• Wagner Group: Inside the Shadowy Russian Mercenary Firm
• Yevgeny Prigozhin: Who is the Man Leading Russia’s Push into Africa?
• Russian Mercenaries and the Private Military Companies Act
• Kremlin’s Response to Challenges: Strategies and Implications
• Analysis: The Plane Crash and Putin’s Calculated Responses