Urban Heat Preparedness Plans: Are They Adequate in an Ever-Warming Globe?

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Natural disasters often hit with a dramatic force — be it devastating hurricanes or destructive tornadoes — yet, heat remains a more lethal threat.

The city of Chicago experienced this harsh reality in 1995. A week of intense heat soaring up to 106 degrees Fahrenheit (41 degrees Celsius) claimed the lives of over 700 individuals in July that year. Most fatalities were concentrated in impoverished, predominantly Black neighborhoods, where the elderly or isolated struggled without adequate ventilation or air conditioning. An overburdened power grid leading to blackouts only exacerbated the situation.

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Post this catastrophe, Chicago’s initial lackluster response gave way to comprehensive emergency heat response plans, including widespread public alert systems and assistance for the most vulnerable. Cities such as Los Angeles, Miami, and Phoenix have followed suit, appointing “chief heat officers” to manage heat-related risks. Similar measures have been adopted by cities and countries globally.

Yet, experts express concerns that these steps may fall short in a world consistently breaking heat records and maintaining inequality in vulnerability.

“I am not aware of a single city that is truly ready for the worst-case scenario that some climate scientists predict,” stated Eric Klinenberg, a social sciences professor at New York University and author of a book on the Chicago heatwave.

The accuracy of forecasting has improved over time, contributing to better heat preparedness. Along with meteorologists, journalists, and government officials, cities like Chicago are striving to raise awareness about impending dangers. But strategies effective in one city may falter in another due to unique architectural, transportation, layout, and inequity factors, according to Bharat Venkat, an associate professor at UCLA who oversees the university’s Heat Lab.

Venkat advocates for addressing inequality through investment in labor rights, sustainable development, and more, arguing that the cost of inaction is greater than the expenses of these initiatives.

After the 2003 heatwave in France, estimated to have caused 15,000 deaths, primarily elderly without air conditioning, the country established a heat watch warning system. Last month, Germany commenced a campaign against heatwave fatalities, drawing inspiration from France.

The city of Ahmedabad in India witnessed over 1,300 deaths during the 2010 heatwave with temperatures exceeding 118 degrees Fahrenheit (48 degrees Celsius). Today, city officials have a heat action plan and even simpler initiatives, such as painting roofs white to reflect sunlight.

Ladd Keith, an assistant professor at the University of Arizona, praised the Code Red Extreme Heat alerts in Baltimore as an exemplar of a well-structured alert system. Meanwhile, Inkyu Han, an environmental health scientist at Temple University, highlighted the ongoing struggle to make cooling aids accessible in poorer neighborhoods and suggested improvements such as enhancing tree canopies.

In Miami, where climate change threatens sea level rise, flooding, hurricanes, and extreme heat, a heat officer was appointed two years ago to develop heat protection strategies.

There are federal laws to prevent heat shutdowns in cold climates, but Robin Bachin, an associate professor at the University of Miami, noted a similar requirement for cooling is absent, posing a particular risk to low-income populations.

Klinenberg warns of potentially serious trouble in the future due to weak electrical grids susceptible to high demand and persisting social inequities. He explains that social issues that increase the deadly impact of heatwaves are only worsening, particularly in “depleted” neighborhoods with weak social ties and limited gathering spaces.

Noboru Nakamura, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Chicago, acknowledges the improvements made by Chicago but also recognizes inequality as a persistent challenge.

“A systemic issue of resource inequality isn’t something that can be eradicated overnight. We still face the same issue we had back then,” Nakamura said. “So that aspect is a significant, unresolved problem.”

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O’Malley contributed to this report from Philadelphia.

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Follow Melina Walling on Twitter @MelinaWalling.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Heat Preparedness

More about Heat Preparedness

• Chicago 1995 Heatwave
• Urban Heat Islands
• France’s Heat Watch Warning System
• Heat Action Plan in Ahmedabad, India
• Miami’s Heat Officer and Climate Change Challenges