Unheeded Warnings Lead to Catastrophic Flooding in Libya, Exposing Governance Crisis

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Despite clear warnings from experts, successive governments in Libya failed to take necessary precautions to fortify two crucial dams located near the northeastern city of Derna. These dams were intended to protect approximately 90,000 residents from the threat of flooding. Notably, last year, a study authored by Abdelwanees Ashoor, a civil engineering professor, indicated that the absence of prompt maintenance would have catastrophic consequences for the valley’s inhabitants.

The grim predictions materialized on September 11, when Derna was subjected to catastrophic flooding, triggered by the failure of the two dams. The collapse unleashed a torrential surge that annihilated entire neighborhoods, resulting in more than 11,300 confirmed deaths and over 10,000 people reported missing, according to data from the Libyan Red Crescent and the United Nations.

Libya’s governance issues, exemplified by its low ranking of 171 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s transparency index as of 2022, only exacerbated the situation. The nation has been embroiled in political chaos and factional strife since the 2011 ouster of dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Currently, the country is divided between two rival administrations—one in the west supported by various armed militias, and another in the east aligned with the Libyan National Army under Gen. Khalifa Hifter.

The dams, known as Abu Mansour and Derna, were constructed in the 1970s by a Yugoslav firm. They were specifically designed to shield Derna from flash floods, a frequent occurrence in the region. Saleh Emhanna, a geological researcher affiliated with the University of Ajdabia, noted that the dams had suffered from years of neglect, making them increasingly vulnerable.

Further emphasizing the lack of adequate oversight, al-Sediq al-Sour, Libya’s general prosecutor, announced an inquiry into the dam failures and the misallocation of maintenance funds. A 2021 report by a state-run audit agency had disclosed that despite allocating more than $2 million for dam maintenance in 2012 and 2013, no work had been conducted.

Arsel Construction Company Ltd., a Turkish firm, claimed to have completed maintenance work on the dams in November 2012. However, there is no third dam as was supposedly planned, according to recent satellite imagery.

Ahead of the storm that precipitated the flooding, conflicting messages were sent to residents about evacuation, further compounding the crisis. Authorities in Derna advised residents to vacate coastal areas, yet many received contradictory text messages urging them to stay put.

The aftermath of the flood has exposed Libya’s frail infrastructure, with as much as a quarter of Derna being obliterated. Local authorities, including Derna’s suspended mayor Abdel-Moneim al-Gaithi, as well as previous administrations, are now the subject of multiple investigations.

Amidst skepticism about the effectiveness of a local probe, activists and concerned citizens have been signing an online petition to establish an independent international committee to determine the root causes of this calamity and hold those accountable.

Jalel Harchaoui, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, noted that any genuine investigation would inevitably confront formidable obstacles, given it may implicate high-ranking officials across Libya’s divided governance structures.

In summary, the catastrophic flood in Derna serves as a grim testament to Libya’s entrenched governance issues, ongoing corruption, and the neglect of essential infrastructure—all of which have had fatal consequences for its populace.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Libya Floods

More about Libya Floods

• Libyan Red Crescent: Disaster Report on Derna Floods
• United Nations: Libya Humanitarian Update
• Transparency International: Libya’s Corruption Index
• Royal United Services Institute: Expert Analysis on Libya
• Report by Sabha University Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences on Dams
• Libya’s General Prosecutor’s Office: Press Release
• Online Petition for Independent International Committee
• Arsel Construction Company: Projects in Libya
• London-based Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies