UN report says world is racing to well past warming limit as carbon emissions rise instead of plunge

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The United Nations report highlights a concerning trajectory for global warming, with Earth on track to exceed the internationally agreed-upon climate limit. The report indicates that Earth is rapidly approaching 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius (4.5 to 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming since pre-industrial times, well beyond the target set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

To have a reasonable chance of staying within the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, countries must reduce their emissions by a significant 42% by the end of this decade, as outlined in the U.N. Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap report. Unfortunately, the report reveals that carbon emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and gas increased by 1.2% in the previous year.

This year has already witnessed the consequences of global warming, with the daily global average temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above mid-19th-century levels for a substantial portion of the year. Notably, the global temperature reached 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time in recorded history, underscoring the acceleration of climate change.

The report emphasizes the urgency of the situation, with temperatures reaching unprecedented heights and extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense. Achieving the 1.5-degree Celsius goal will require countries to set more ambitious emissions reduction targets and implement effective policies to achieve these goals.

While some progress has been made in countries like the United States and Europe, the current emissions trajectory remains far from the necessary reductions. The report points out that the world emitted 57.4 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2022, with current country pledges only reducing that to 55 billion metric tons. To limit warming to the 1.5-degree mark by 2030, emissions must decrease to 33 billion metric tons, leaving a significant “emissions gap” of 22 billion metric tons.

In summary, the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius are slim, with a one-in-seven probability. Alternatively, if the world aims for a 2-degree Celsius limit, emissions would need to be reduced to 41 billion metric tons, with a 16 billion metric ton gap. The report underscores the critical need for immediate and substantial action to address the climate crisis and prevent further warming.

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More about climate emergency

• UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap report
• 2015 Paris climate agreement
• European climate service Copernicus
• AP’s climate coverage
• Climate Analytics
• New Climate Institute in Germany