Trump’s GOP Support Slightly Affected Following Indictment on Classified Documents, Poll Finds

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A recent poll conducted by The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicates that former President Donald Trump’s popularity among Republicans has experienced a slight decline after his criminal indictment for mishandling government secrets.

The survey reveals that 60% of Republicans currently hold a favorable view of Trump, which is a slight decrease from the 68% reported in April. On the other hand, the number of Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump has increased to 38% from the previous 30% recorded in April.

These findings suggest that some Republicans may be growing weary of the continuous legal controversies surrounding Trump, as he became the first former U.S. president to face federal criminal charges. Trump has been indicted on multiple counts, including the improper storage of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, as well as concealing and refusing to hand them over to investigators.

The overall sentiment towards Trump among Americans leans more towards the unfavorable side, with 63% holding an unfavorable view compared to 33% with a favorable view. These numbers remain similar to those reported in April. The survey was conducted between June 22-26, following the public disclosure of the full indictment and Trump’s plea of not guilty.

The poll also reveals a slight increase in the belief among U.S. adults that Trump acted illegally in handling the classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. Currently, 53% of respondents state that he broke the law, up from 47% in the previous April poll. However, this increase is primarily driven by Democrats.

Among Democratic voters, 84% now believe that Trump broke the law in relation to the documents, compared to 75% in April. In contrast, only around 25% of Republicans believe Trump acted illegally, with an additional 29% stating that his actions were unethical but not illegal, and 26% asserting that he did nothing wrong. The remaining respondents claimed to lack sufficient information to form an opinion.

For example, Patty Faber, a registered Republican from Arizona, dismissed the charges against Trump, describing them as “hooey.” While acknowledging that Trump should not have taken the documents home, she pointed out that other presidents, including Joe Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence, have also been found with classified documents but have not faced accusations of concealment or lying to investigators.

Faber, who previously supported Trump, expressed her preference for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a potential nominee for the Republican party, citing concerns about Trump’s baggage.

Another Republican voter, Nancy Tobeck from Tennessee, believes that Trump may have potentially broken the law but does not view it as deliberate. She expressed mixed feelings, acknowledging that Trump may have done something wrong by not surrendering the documents, while also perceiving the situation as politically motivated.

The numbers highlighted in the poll underscore the challenges faced by Trump’s Republican rivals, who struggle to respond to allegations that would typically result in a candidate’s downfall. While figures like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Mike Pence have criticized Trump’s actions, they have also voiced their skepticism towards the Justice Department, reflecting the deep mistrust of federal law enforcement among GOP voters.

Apart from the charges in Florida, Trump was indicted in New York in March for hush money payments made during the 2016 campaign. Furthermore, there are potential additional charges under investigation in other jurisdictions. These include a prosecutor in Georgia examining Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election results and special counsel Jack Smith in Washington investigating Trump’s election lies and the subsequent violent riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.

The survey indicates that half of U.S. adults believe Trump broke the law in his alleged interference in Georgia’s vote count during the 2020 election, while slightly fewer (45%) consider his actions relating to the January 6 insurrection to be unlawful. Regarding the hush money payments, 35% of respondents believe Trump acted illegally, a slight decrease from the 41% reported in April. Specifically, 57% of Democrats now consider Trump’s actions illegal in that case, down from 68% in April, while only 13% of Republicans share that belief.

The federal indictment against Trump has garnered significant attention, with the majority of U.S. adults having read or heard at least some information about it. Democrats are slightly more likely than Republicans to claim they have extensive knowledge on the matter.

The intense focus on Trump’s indictment poses a challenge for his GOP rivals, who strive to gain visibility amidst the ongoing controversy.

Paul Schwartz, an independent voter from Idaho who voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, views the indictment as a “witch hunt” and “mudslinging” devoid of any purpose. While Schwartz does not consider himself a fan of Trump, he believes that attempts to sway public opinion on irrelevant matters are futile. He argues that candidates’ positions on significant issues like abortion and immigration should take precedence over these controversies.

The poll surveyed 1,220 adults between June 22-26, utilizing a sample drawn from NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to represent the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is approximately plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

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