The Democratic Party promised to overhaul its primaries. Doing that has been anything but simple

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The process of overhauling the Democratic Party’s primaries has proven to be far from simple. Several states, including New Hampshire and Georgia, are experiencing resistance and pushback. While South Carolina and Nevada are onboard, they are facing opposition from Republicans. Michigan may have to shorten its legislative session to comply with the changes, despite being under Democratic control. Iowa is also seeking ways to maintain its first position without violating party rules.

Months after President Joe Biden’s plan to revamp the primary order was approved by the Democratic Party, implementing the new order has faced significant challenges. The process is expected to continue throughout the year, even as the 2024 presidential race gains momentum.

David Redlawsk, chair of the political science department at the University of Delaware, stated that the backlash and objections were expected, despite the relatively smooth sailing when the proposal was initially made. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is prepared for the arduous process and remains unconcerned about the uncertainty. The minor primary challengers for President Biden, Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., further alleviate concerns.

President Biden’s advisers indicate that he does not anticipate an extensive campaign in the Democratic primary and will focus primarily on the general election. However, the ongoing drama surrounding the primary calendar could pose challenges for projecting unity within the Democratic Party in 2024 and beyond. The party has committed to revisiting its primary calendar again in 2028.

Jim Roosevelt, co-chairman of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, expressed understanding regarding the objections raised by Iowa and New Hampshire, as they are losing their leadoff positions. He believes the committee can work around the protests from places adjusting to the new rules. Roosevelt stated that a sitting president’s term is an opportune time to make fundamental changes for a more representative process. The party previously reordered its primary calendar ahead of a competitive presidential primary in 2008 and is likely to do so again in 2028.

Another protracted calendar process could lead to uncertainty with significant electoral consequences, potentially making it challenging for Democrats running in a competitive presidential primary to strategize their campaigns. To mitigate this, the party plans to begin discussions about the 2028 calendar early, possibly soon after the 2024 election.

The DNC does not intend to alter the 2024 plan approved in February, which removed Iowa’s caucus as the leadoff event. Instead, South Carolina will hold the first primary, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan. However, New Hampshire has insisted on maintaining its status as the first presidential primary state, citing state law. Georgia’s Republicans have also rejected moving their party’s primary to comply with the Democrats’ new schedule.

While Iowa Democrats have attempted to avoid open defiance of the national party’s plans, they hope for flexibility that could place them back in the top 5 of the Democratic primary calendar if other states vacate their spots. However, this scenario is considered unlikely.

The demographic factor played a role in moving Iowa from the No. 1 spot, and that is not expected to change. New Hampshire, with its Republican governor and GOP-controlled Legislature, remains firm in its position to hold the first primary, regardless of the DNC’s efforts.

The actions taken by New Hampshire and Iowa could have consequences for President Biden and other candidates. If New Hampshire proceeds with its unsanctioned primary and Biden chooses not to campaign there, it could benefit his challengers. However, polling suggests that the primary remains far from truly competitive in the state.

The ongoing battle over the primary calendar suggests that change is likely to happen, and its impact could be significant. The early states play a crucial role in conditioning the campaign, indicating which candidates are likely to lose in the first rounds. The outcome could be different if South Carolina, Nevada, or other states lead the way instead of Iowa or New Hampshire.

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