The Dawn of Right-leaning Shift in Spain’s Election Begins

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Voting kicked off on Sunday in Spain, signaling the potential shift of yet another European Union member towards right-wing politics through a consequential general election.

Pedro Sánchez, the incumbent Prime Minister, brought about this early election in response to a significant defeat his Spanish Socialist Workers Party, allied with the far-left Unidas Podemos, suffered in the regional and local elections held in May. Sánchez has been leading the government since 2018.

Most pre-election surveys forecasted that the right-wing Popular Party, victors in the May elections, would outperform the Socialists, but to establish a government, it may require the backing of the hard-right Vox party.

The formation of such a coalition could potentially mark the reemergence of far-right forces in the Spanish government, a first since the country’s shift to democracy in the late 1970s, post the extended dictatorship of Francisco Franco.

The potential government led by PP-Vox would echo the recent political drift to the right witnessed in EU countries like Sweden, Finland, and Italy, a development causing anxiety in Germany and France, given its potential implications on EU’s immigration and climate policies.

Spain’s primary left-wing parties endorse EU participation. In terms of right-wing politics, the PP shares this pro-EU stance, but Vox does not.

The election has gained significance as it coincides with Spain’s term holding the EU’s rotating presidency, a period Sánchez had hoped to utilize to highlight his government’s progress. A defeat in this election could see the Popular Party assuming control of the EU presidency.

Sánchez, one of the first to cast his vote in Madrid, reflected on the election’s wider European significance, evidenced by the extensive foreign media coverage.

The incumbent leader didn’t disclose his optimism or lack thereof but expressed his “good vibrations”. The Socialists and a novel leftist alliance, Sumar, composed of 15 smaller parties, harbor hopes of achieving a surprise win.

Without any party likely to secure an outright majority, the electorate essentially faces a choice between another leftist coalition or an alliance of right and far-right forces.

The polling booths welcomed 37 million voters at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT), with the voting process set to conclude at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT). Near-final results are anticipated by midnight.

The election occurs during the peak summer season, a time when millions of voters might be vacationing away from their usual polling sites. However, requests for postal voting have surged, leading officials to predict a 70% voter turnout.

Given recent heatwaves, temperatures on polling day are projected to reach above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), rising between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius above the norm in many regions.

Sánchez’s government has navigated Spain through the COVID-19 crisis and an inflation-triggered economic recession, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

His reliance on peripheral parties to maintain his minority coalition, including separatist groups from Catalonia and the Basque Country, coupled with the passage of numerous liberal laws, might risk his position.

Right-wing parties hold Sánchez’s leadership in disdain, accusing him of betraying and destroying Spain. They pledge to repeal numerous laws instituted by him, laws that have had beneficial impacts on millions of citizens and thousands of businesses.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Spain’s general election

More about Spain’s general election

• Spain’s election: Voters head to the polls
• Spain’s Prime Minister calls for early election
• Opinion polls and the lead of Popular Party
• Potential coalition between Popular Party and Vox
• Impact of right-leaning shift in Spain on the EU
• Stances of main parties on EU participation
• Estimation of voter turnout and challenges
• Overview of Pedro Sánchez’s government and opposition goals