Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority

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Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk has declared a significant victory following Sunday’s election, where it appears that opposition parties have garnered enough support to remove the ruling nationalist conservative party, Law and Justice, from power. This party has faced criticism for internal disputes and accusations of undermining the rule of law during its eight-year tenure. Notably, voter turnout was exceptionally high, surpassing even the levels seen during the 1989 ousting of the communist regime.

According to the Ipsos exit poll, Law and Justice secured 200 seats, making it the largest party but without enough to form a government capable of passing legislation. The exit poll also indicated that three opposition parties, including Civic Coalition led by Tusk, likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, known as the Sejm.

Tusk expressed his elation, stating, “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power.” He emphasized that this marks the end of Law and Justice’s rule.

Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the mixed results, noting that his party secured nearly 37% of the vote, a success in terms of popular support. Nevertheless, the path to forming a government remained uncertain.

The responsibility now falls on President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, to select a party to attempt to build a government. Three opposition parties, despite running on separate tickets, shared the goal of ousting Law and Justice and improving relations with the European Union.

The outcome of this election carries substantial implications, including the nation’s constitutional order, its stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and its foreign alliances, particularly its relationship with Ukraine. It’s worth noting that Law and Justice has been criticized for eroding checks and balances in state institutions.

Despite the uncertainties ahead, one thing seems clear: Law and Justice has experienced a significant decline in support compared to the previous election in 2019. Economic concerns, allegations of cronyism, and disputes with European allies have contributed to this decline.

A political shift could potentially lead to the release of withheld EU funding, which had been suspended due to concerns about democratic backsliding. Additionally, Poland’s relationship with Ukraine, strained by anti-Ukraine rhetoric from some quarters, may see positive developments with the poor showing of the Confederation party.

In conclusion, the recent Polish election has produced a notable change in the political landscape, with the opposition poised to take a significant role in shaping the country’s future. The high voter turnout and the diversity of issues at stake make this election a pivotal moment in Poland’s political history.

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