New US aid for Ukraine by year-end seems increasingly out of reach as GOP ties it to border security

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The prospects of securing additional U.S. aid for Ukraine by the end of this year are becoming increasingly uncertain as the issue becomes entangled with border security concerns raised by the GOP.

President Joe Biden is facing difficulties in reaching a deal for further U.S. assistance to Ukraine before the year’s end. Despite the White House’s warnings about the consequences of inaction, the impasse in Congress deepens as Republicans insist on linking the aid to changes in immigration and border policies.

President Biden recently expressed a willingness to “make significant compromises on the border,” prompting Republicans to resurrect their demands related to border policies. This has resulted in a hardening of positions and a shift towards right-leaning negotiations, according to an anonymous source familiar with the talks.

The latest proposal, put forth by Republican Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, emerged during a meeting with a core group of senators before their departure from Washington. This proposal could introduce ideas that many Democrats strongly oppose, further complicating the negotiations.

Biden’s foreign policy goal of preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from overtaking Ukraine is at risk as U.S. support for funding the war wanes, particularly among Republicans. The White House emphasizes that a failure to approve more aid by year’s end could have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine and its ability to defend itself.

To maintain U.S. support, the Biden administration has been quietly engaged in Senate talks on border policy in recent weeks, assisting a small group of senators in their efforts to reach a compromise while indicating what policy changes would be acceptable.

The President is navigating the challenge of meeting GOP demands to reduce the influx of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border while addressing concerns from Democrats about potential restrictions on legal immigration.

As the talks resumed, Democrats cautioned Republicans that time for a deal was running short, with Congress scheduled to depart from Washington for a holiday break in mid-December.

The new Republican proposal includes policy changes that had previously caused Democrats to step back from the negotiations. It calls for ending the humanitarian parole program for certain groups of migrants, including Ukrainians, Afghans, Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, and Haitians. Additionally, these migrants would not be eligible for parole if their stay expires before their immigration cases are adjudicated.

GOP senators have proposed monitoring systems like ankle bracelets for detained individuals, including children awaiting parole. They also want to bar people from applying for asylum if they have passed through another country where they could have sought asylum. Republicans aim to revive executive powers allowing the President to restrict entries for various reasons. Moreover, if illegal border crossings exceed a certain limit, the GOP proposal would essentially shut down the border.

While Senator Lankford did not provide specifics about the proposal, he emphasized the need to address the large number of undocumented individuals arriving at the border and the strain on the asylum system.

The lead Democratic negotiator, Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, did not immediately respond to the GOP proposal.

Although there had been some progress in the talks, particularly in raising the standard for migrants entering the asylum system, concerns have been raised among immigration advocates and progressive members of Congress. They are alarmed that the negotiations have not included measures to expand legal immigration.

Robyn Barnard, director of refugee advocacy with Human Rights First, expressed concerns about the negotiations, warning that broadening fast-track deportation authority could result in mass roundups of immigrants, causing fear within communities.

Republicans, sensing President Biden’s desire to address the border situation, have taken an assertive stance and tried to involve the President directly in the negotiations.

The White House has not yet taken a leading role in the negotiations, emphasizing the need for Senate Democrats and Republicans to find common ground.

Despite the challenges in the Senate, even if a deal is reached, there are considerable obstacles to passage in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana has indicated support for broader changes to immigration policy. Additionally, securing broad support from House Democrats is uncertain, as some progressives and Hispanic lawmakers are concerned about restricting access to asylum.

In summary, the issue of providing further U.S. aid to Ukraine by year-end has become intertwined with contentious border security negotiations, making it increasingly challenging to reach a resolution in a timely manner.