Half a Year from the Iowa Caucuses, Trump’s Potential Run Stirs Unease in the GOP

Despite facing two indictments, allegations of sexual abuse, and lacking the support of approximately one-third of his party, ex-President Donald Trump is nevertheless viewed as a leading candidate in the upcoming GOP presidential nomination, a reality that is causing increasing worry among some Republicans.

In political contests, early frontrunners do not always secure their party’s nomination. However, an increasing belief in Trump’s potential success is causing concern among certain factions of the party eager to distance themselves from the Trump era. Reports describe a sense of urgency, even reaching “DEFCON 1”, as these factions scramble to redirect the course of the race without a clear strategy or a unified candidate to rally behind.

“There’s substantial concern,” comments former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, voicing the apprehension shared by other Republican leaders who think Trump’s potential re-nomination could spell disaster for the GOP in the upcoming November elections. “We were expected to have made more significant strides than we have at this point,” he adds.

Despite a firm lead in polls, with Trump consistently outperforming his closest competitor by 20 to 30 points or more, he is not without significant challenges. Trump’s political future is shadowed by state and federal investigations into his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, with the unique potential of him undergoing a trial while simultaneously campaigning.

Nevertheless, even critics acknowledge that anticipated detrimental impacts to Trump’s reputation, such as his criminal indictments in New York and Florida, have yet to materialize. In some cases, these legal troubles have actually rallied supporters back to his side.

While the anti-Trump wing of the GOP has yet to unify behind a single alternative candidate, there is a growing sense of discontent with the Trump-dominated political landscape. Some have started spending heavily on efforts to undermine Trump’s support, although a unified alternative candidate remains elusive.

Simultaneously, groups like Americans for Prosperity Action are engaging with voters, asserting that Trump’s popularity is weaker than many assume, and that even self-identified Trump supporters express concern about his electability in a general election and openness to an alternative candidate.

However, the anti-Trump strategy is not without its critics. According to former GOP pollster Frank Luntz, this approach may inadvertently boost Trump’s chances by casting him as a victim. Luntz suggests that the Republican electorate is open to an alternative, but still want a candidate who will deliver on Trump’s promises.

Indeed, the political landscape can change rapidly once voting begins. For example, in the 2008 campaign, the eventual GOP nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, didn’t become the leading candidate until his win in the New Hampshire primary in January 2008.

In contrast, no ex-president has attempted a comeback after losing reelection in the modern era. Nonetheless, Trump maintains a powerful influence within the party. His critics and rival campaigns are quick to point out his campaign’s perceived missteps, especially in Iowa, where he’s criticized popular Governor Kim Reynolds and missed GOP gatherings attended by most of his primary rivals.

Among those challenging Trump for the nomination is former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who maintains a belief in the possibility of defeating Trump. However, he asserts two crucial changes need to occur: first, clarity from candidates like himself that Trump is not the correct choice for the country or party; and second, a realization among voters that a Trump nomination could lead to a catastrophic loss for the GOP in the 2024 elections.

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• Growing unease among GOP leaders