COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the US Seeing a Modest Rise, Unlike Previous Occurrences

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Once again, there is a noticeable increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States since early July, reminiscent of the slight rises seen in the three previous summers.

Despite the anticipation of an updated vaccine in the coming months, this summer’s uptick in hospitalizations might cause some concern; however, the current patient count is significantly lower than in the past. Here’s an overview of the situation:

Magnitude of the Increase

In the week ending on July 29, the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions reached 9,056, marking a 12% rise from the preceding week.

Nonetheless, these numbers pale in comparison to previous peaks, such as the 44,000 weekly admissions recorded in early January, the nearly 45,000 seen in late July 2022, or the staggering 150,000 admissions observed during the omicron surge in January 2022.

Dr. David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, reassures, “It is ticking up a little bit, but it’s not something that we need to raise any alarm bells over.”

Tracking Mortality

From early June onwards, the weekly death toll has ranged between 500 and 600 people. While deaths have appeared stable this summer, historical patterns show that increases in fatalities typically lag behind the rise in hospitalizations.

Monitoring the Virus

Across the nation, the concentration of the COVID-19 virus in sewage water has been steadily increasing since late June. Health officials plan to closely monitor wastewater levels as people return from summer travel and students go back to school.

Though higher concentrations of the virus are found in sewage, particularly in the Northeast and South, experts emphasize that these levels remain relatively low. In fact, they are about 2.5 times lower than those seen last summer.

Variant Insight

While a new subvariant called “eris” has become more common, no single variant has attained dominance. However, it’s crucial to note that this new variant, often referred to as “eris,” is not an official designation, and scientists are not using it. Despite the emergence of various mutations, there is no indication of variants as impactful as delta or omicron that drove earlier waves.

Dr. Cristin Young, an epidemiologist at Biobot Analytics, the CDC’s wastewater surveillance contractor, states, “Just because we have a new subvariant doesn’t mean that we are destined to have an increase in bad outcomes.”

Anticipating the New Vaccine

In the upcoming fall, updated COVID-19 vaccines are expected to be available. These vaccines will target one version of the omicron strain, known as XBB.1.5. This update is a departure from current combination shots, which combine the original coronavirus strain with last year’s most prevalent omicron variants.

The specific timeline for administering these updated shots is not yet clear. Pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax are working on producing doses of the XBB update. However, the Food and Drug Administration must approve each version, and the CDC will subsequently provide usage recommendations.

Dr. Mandy Cohen, the new CDC director, anticipates that the COVID-19 shots will be administered in familiar locations like pharmacies and workplaces, much like flu shots. She emphasizes, “We have more tools than ever before” to navigate the upcoming fall and winter seasons.

(Original reporting by AP Medical Writers Lauran Neergaard and Mike Stobbe.)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about COVID-19 trends

More about COVID-19 trends

• Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
• AP Medical Writers Lauran Neergaard and Mike Stobbe
• Biobot Analytics
• Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
• Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax