Climate-Linked Cyclone Wreaks Havoc in Libya: An Exploration of Its Underlying Factors

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The recent Mediterranean tempest that unleashed a deluge on the Libyan coastline, reportedly resulting in the loss of thousands of lives, serves as the newest addition to a series of extreme weather incidents bearing indications of climate change, according to scientific experts.

Known as a “medicane” due to its similarities with hurricanes, the storm drew considerable power from anomalously warm sea temperatures. Additionally, experts suggest that a warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water vapor, which can then precipitate as intense rainfall.

Attributing a singular weather event to climate change is challenging, stated Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany. However, she acknowledged that certain factors associated with storms like Daniel could increase their probability of occurrence.

Typically forming once or twice annually between September and January, medicanes are prevalent in the Mediterranean. While they often do not attain the status of true hurricanes, they can occasionally escalate to hurricane-level intensity, informed Simon Mason, chief climate scientist at Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The medicane, named Daniel, originated from a low-pressure weather system over a week ago and was obstructed by a high-pressure system. This led to unprecedented rainfall over Greece and its neighboring regions before overwhelming Libya.

Raghu Murtugudde, a faculty member at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, and emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, highlighted that rising sea temperatures are making cyclones less mobile, thereby enabling them to discharge greater volumes of rain. Moreover, the combined impact of human activity and climate change is exacerbating the outcomes of these storms through land use changes. For instance, flooding in Greece was intensified due to wildfires and soil erosion, whereas in Libya, it was aggravated by decrepit infrastructure.

In a particularly grim development, the collapse of dams near Derna, a city in eastern Libya, led to flash floods that may have resulted in thousands of deaths. Search efforts are ongoing, with hundreds of bodies already recovered and an estimated 10,000 people still unaccounted for.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, warned that the elevated sea temperatures fueling storms like Daniel are part of a global trend. “No region is exempt from the wrath of devastating storms such as Daniel, as evidenced by recent floods in locations including Massachusetts, Greece, and Hong Kong,” said Francis.

Though it is early for comprehensive scientific analysis, Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist and meteorologist at Leipzig University, noted that the Mediterranean has witnessed a 2 to 3 degrees Celsius temperature increase this year compared to historical averages. While weather systems like Daniel could have emerged even without climate change, their consequences would likely have been less severe in a cooler climate, he added.

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More about Climate-Linked Cyclone in Libya

• Understanding Climate Change
• Mediterranean Cyclones or ‘Medicanes’
• Extreme Weather and Climate Change
• Global Sea Surface Temperature Trends
• Impacts of Human Activities on Extreme Weather
• University at Albany Atmospheric Sciences Research
• Columbia Climate School’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society
• Woodwell Climate Research Center
• Associated Press Climate Initiative