Cease of Russian Mercenary Leader’s Rebellion Raises Doubts on Putin’s Strength

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The significant uprising against Vladimir Putin, who has presided over Russia for over two decades, lost momentum when the insubordinate mercenary leader commanding his forces to challenge Moscow abruptly agreed to a Kremlin-brokered deal for self-exile and ordered a withdrawal.

However, this short-lived rebellion revealed weaknesses within the Russian government forces. Soldiers of the Wagner Group, under Yevgeny Prigozhin’s command, smoothly infiltrated the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and moved hundreds of kilometers towards Moscow, putting the Russian military on high alert to safeguard the capital.

The deal, which was made public on Saturday by Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, would send Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus, a nation that supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Charges against him related to leading an armed uprising will be dismissed.

The government also stated it would not press charges against the Wagner fighters involved, while those who abstained would be offered contracts by the Defense Ministry. Prigozhin then directed his forces to return to their field camps in Ukraine, where they have been in combat alongside Russian regular troops.

Despite his earlier promise to punish those who spearheaded the armed uprising, Putin decided to let Prigozhin and his forces go free to avoid bloodshed and potential internal strife with unforeseeable outcomes, according to Peskov. However, this decision may cause Putin to appear weak, say analysts.

“Putin has been permanently undermined by this incident,” stated John Herbst, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, on CNN.

Moscow fortified its borders against the advancing Wagner forces by establishing checkpoints, manned by armored vehicles and troops. Approximately 3,000 Chechen soldiers were redirected from fighting in Ukraine to secure Moscow. The march was slowed by digging up portions of the highways.

According to Prigozhin, the Wagner troops were just 200 kilometers away from Moscow before he decided to retreat in order to prevent further Russian casualties following the agreed deal.

Prigozhin, who has long criticized Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for his handling of the 16-month-long war in Ukraine, called for his removal. Agreeing to Shoigu’s dismissal could politically backfire on Putin, given his public denouncement of Prigozhin as a traitorous backstabber.

Contradicting Prigozhin’s assertion that his rebellion was in retaliation to an assault on his Ukraine-based camps, U.S. intelligence indicates that he had been amassing his forces near the Russian border for a while.

In his rebellion announcement, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of bombarding the Wagner camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships, and artillery under orders from Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff, following a meeting with Shoigu. The Defense Ministry has denied these accusations.

A possible impetus for Prigozhin’s rebellion could be the Russian Defense Ministry’s upcoming requirement for private companies to sign contracts with it, a demand backed by Putin and rejected by Prigozhin.

As of early Saturday, Prigozhin’s private army had gained control of the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a city situated more than 1,000 kilometers south of Moscow and overseeing Russian operations in Ukraine, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defense.

Following the agreement that deescalated the situation, footage from Rostov-on-Don showed locals cheering as Wagner troops departed. The regional governor later confirmed that all troops had left the city.

Despite the retreat, heightened security measures remain in place in Moscow, with Mayor Sergei Sobyanin declaring Monday a day off for most residents.

The internal strife among Russian forces could present an opportunity for Ukraine to reclaim territories

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More about Putin’s Power Challenge

• Wagner Group
• Vladimir Putin
• Yevgeny Prigozhin
• Russia-Ukraine War
• History of rebellions in Russia
• Russian Military