Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro is barred from running for office until 2030

Brazil’s former far-right President, Jair Bolsonaro, has been barred from running for office until 2030, according to a panel of judges who concluded that he had abused his power and spread baseless doubts about the country’s electronic voting system. This decision significantly disrupts Bolsonaro’s political future and effectively eliminates any possibility of him regaining power.

The ruling was supported by five judges on the highest electoral court in Brazil, who determined that Bolsonaro had exploited government communication channels to promote his campaign and sow mistrust regarding the electoral process. Only two judges dissented from the decision.

Political science professor Carlos Melo from Insper University in Sao Paulo commented, “This decision will put an end to Bolsonaro’s chances of becoming president again, and he is aware of it. After this, he will attempt to avoid imprisonment, support his allies to maintain his political influence, but it is highly unlikely that he will ever return to the presidency.”

The case centered around a meeting on July 18, 2022, where Bolsonaro utilized government personnel, the state television channel, and the presidential palace in Brasilia to allege that the country’s electronic voting system was manipulated.

Judge Carmen Lucia, who is also a Supreme Court justice, cast the deciding vote, stating, “The facts are indisputable. The meeting did take place. It was convened by the then-president. Its content is available. It was examined by everyone, and there was never a denial that it did happen.”

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes characterized the decision as a rejection of “populism born from hateful, antidemocratic speech that promotes gross misinformation.”

Bolsonaro, speaking to reporters in Minas Gerais, expressed his discontent with the trial, considering it unfair and politically motivated. When asked about his next steps, he responded, “We’re going to consult with our lawyers. Life goes on.” He denounced the ruling as an attack on Brazilian democracy, stating, “It’s a rather difficult moment.”

Melo emphasized that the decision is highly unlikely to be overturned. In addition to being barred from the 2024 and 2028 municipal elections, Bolsonaro faces other legal challenges, including ongoing criminal investigations. If he is convicted in future cases, his disqualification could be extended, potentially leading to imprisonment.

While former Presidents Fernando Collor de Mello and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were previously declared ineligible, Bolsonaro’s case marks the first instance where a president has been suspended due to election violations rather than a criminal offense. Brazilian law prohibits candidates with criminal convictions from running for office.

The ruling received mixed reactions among Brazilians. Maria Maris, a 58-year-old engineer in Rio de Janeiro, celebrated the decision but remained skeptical about potential political motivations. She said, “My fear is that Bolsonaro appeals and runs in the next presidential election, even though he was made ineligible today.”

Bolsonaro retains a ceremonial leadership position within his Liberal Party and has traveled across Brazil criticizing President Lula, who narrowly won the last election. In January, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in an attempt to remove President Lula from power. Bolsonaro’s involvement in inciting the uprising is currently under investigation by federal police, though he denies any wrongdoing.

The chairwoman of Lula’s Workers’ Party, Gleisi Hoffmann, regarded Bolsonaro’s ineligibility as a lesson for the far-right. She stated, “The far-right needs to understand that the political struggle occurs within the democratic process, not through violence and threats of a coup.” Hoffmann added, “Bolsonaro will be out of the game because he doesn’t respect the rules. Not only him, but his entire gang of coup supporters must follow the same path.”

While the trial has revitalized Bolsonaro’s online support base, with some supporters comparing his situation to that of former U.S. President Donald Trump, their engagement level falls short of the fervor seen during last year’s divisive election.

As the news of the majority vote against Bolsonaro reached the public, it evoked mixed reactions. Katia Caminha, a 67-year-old retiree in Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana neighborhood, expressed disappointment with the trial, considering it a “clown show.” She opined that anything related to the electoral court is biased against Bolsonaro and labeled the ruling as terrible news for Brazil.

Bolsonaro’s supporters have continued to demonstrate their unwavering backing by making contributions to help him pay fines imposed by the Sao Paulo state government for his repeated violations of health protocols during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although Bolsonaro aims to become a kingmaker for the right-wing, his decision to spend several months in Florida at the beginning of President Lula’s term has weakened his influence.

Political analyst Thomas Traumann noted the diminished size of Bolsonaro’s support base and lack of significant right-wing outrage on social media during the eligibility trial. Traumann stated, “There won’t be a mass movement because he has diminished in size. His decision to go to Florida and not lead the opposition caused him to shrink. The leader of the opposition is clearly not Bolsonaro.”

As the trial neared its end, a trumpeter outside the electoral court played the song that gained popularity during last year’s presidential race: “It is Time for Jair to Go Away.”

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