Antony Blinken Heads to China Amid Rising Tensions and Limited Prospects for Progress

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Antony Blinken, the United States Secretary of State, is embarking on a critical diplomatic visit to China in an attempt to alleviate escalating tensions between the two global powers. The visit carries significant stakes and has garnered attention worldwide.

Blinken’s arrival in Beijing on Sunday marks the highest-level visit by an American official since President Joe Biden assumed office, and the first trip made by a Secretary of State in five years.

However, the chances of achieving substantial breakthroughs on the pressing issues that confront the world’s two largest economies are slim. In recent years, bilateral relations have increasingly strained, resulting in heightened animosity and growing recriminations. These disagreements have far-reaching implications for global security and stability.

During his two-day stay, Blinken anticipates meetings with Qin on Sunday, Wang, and possibly Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday, as confirmed by U.S. officials.

The decision for Blinken’s trip was reached during a meeting between President Biden and President Xi Jinping in Bali last year. Initially planned for February, the visit was delayed due to diplomatic and political turbulence following the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon flying over the United States, which was subsequently shot down.

The list of contentious issues and potential conflicts is extensive. It spans from trade relations involving Taiwan, human rights concerns in China, the situation in Hong Kong, and Chinese military assertiveness in the South China Sea to Russia’s involvement in Ukraine.

Before departing from Washington on Friday, U.S. officials stated that Blinken would address each of these issues, even though neither side has shown a willingness to back down from their respective positions.

In a press statement before leaving, Blinken emphasized the importance of establishing and maintaining effective lines of communication between the United States and China. He expressed the desire to prevent the competition between the two nations from escalating into conflict due to avoidable misunderstandings.

Blinken highlighted the commitments made by Presidents Biden and Xi to enhance communication, stating that clear communication would reduce the risk of misunderstandings and miscommunications. These commitments are crucial to ensure that both countries engage in activities that benefit their respective nations, their citizens, and humanity as a whole, said Blinken.

President Xi also hinted at a potential willingness to reduce tensions during a meeting with Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates, stating that the United States and China can collaborate for the benefit of both countries and the global community.

Although Blinken’s trip was postponed in February, there have been some high-level engagements since then. CIA Chief William Burns visited China in May, and China’s commerce minister traveled to the U.S. Additionally, President Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Vienna.

However, these engagements have been interspersed with bursts of angry rhetoric from both sides concerning the Taiwan Strait, broader intentions in the Indo-Pacific region, China’s stance on Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and U.S. allegations of Beijing’s global surveillance efforts, including those in Cuba.

Earlier this month, China’s defense minister rejected a meeting request from U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of a security symposium in Singapore, indicating ongoing discontent.

Secretary Austin expressed confidence on Friday that he and his Chinese counterpart would eventually meet, though the timing has not been determined yet.

The strained atmosphere was further highlighted when China dismissed a report by a U.S. security firm that attributed attacks on numerous public agencies, schools, and other targets worldwide to Chinese-linked hackers. China described the report as “far-fetched and unprofessional” and accused the U.S. of carrying out hacking attacks while claiming that the cybersecurity industry seldom reports on them.

China had previously voiced similar concerns when Foreign Minister Qin Gang urged the United States to respect China’s core concerns, particularly the issue of Taiwan’s self-rule, and cease interference in China’s internal affairs. The call for non-interference also included a plea to halt actions that harm China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests under the pretext of competition.

Meanwhile, the national security advisers of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines held their inaugural joint talks on Friday and agreed to enhance their defense cooperation as a response to China’s growing influence and ambitions.

These developments coincide with the Biden administration’s agreement with Australia and Britain to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. China has been rapidly expanding its diplomatic presence, particularly in the Indian Ocean and Pacific island nations, planning to open at least five new embassies within the next year.

Ahead of Blinken’s departure, two U.S. officials downplayed expectations for major progress during the visit and stressed that its primary objective was to restore a sense of calm and normalcy in high-level interactions.

Daniel Kritenbrink, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia and the Pacific, stated that the United States approached Beijing realistically, with confidence, and a genuine desire to manage competition responsibly.

Kurt Campbell, the top Asia expert at the National Security Council, emphasized the need for intense diplomacy to manage tensions during times of intense competition. He underscored the importance of clearing up misperceptions, signaling intentions, and fostering communication to work together when interests align.

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