A government shutdown is nearing this weekend. What does it mean, who’s hit and what’s next?

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A looming government shutdown raises crucial questions about its implications, its targets, and the unfolding political dynamics. As we approach this critical juncture, it’s essential to understand the fundamentals.

WHAT IS A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN?

A government shutdown materializes when Congress fails to pass funding legislation signed into law by the President. The legislative process ideally encompasses the passage of 12 distinct spending bills, a time-consuming endeavor. In practice, temporary extensions known as continuing resolutions (CRs) often serve to sustain government operations.

In the absence of enacted funding legislation, federal agencies are compelled to suspend all nonessential activities. Furthermore, federal employees, including military personnel, face delayed paychecks during the shutdown. A 2019 law ensures that these furloughed workers receive backpay once the funding impasse is resolved.

WHEN WOULD A SHUTDOWN BEGIN AND HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

The current government funding is set to expire on October 1, marking the commencement of the federal budget year. Should Congress fail to pass a funding plan signed into law by the President, a shutdown would effectively begin at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday.

Estimating the duration of a shutdown is a formidable challenge. The Senate, controlled by Democrats, and the Republican-led House are pursuing vastly different strategies to avert a shutdown. The absence of support among hard-right conservatives in the House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s camp further complicates the situation. Hence, the possibility of a protracted shutdown, potentially lasting weeks, looms large.

WHO DOES A SHUTDOWN AFFECT?

The ramifications of a government shutdown extend across a broad spectrum. Millions of federal workers, encompassing both military personnel and civilian employees, are at risk of delayed paychecks. Notably, the Department of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security house nearly 60% of federal workers.

While active-duty military personnel and reservists continue their duties, a significant portion of the Department of Defense’s civilian workforce, roughly 440,000 individuals, would be furloughed. Federal employees stationed nationwide, with direct interactions with taxpayers, face uncertainty. This includes Transportation Security Administration agents and Postal Service workers, among others.

The effects ripple into government services, leading to potential delays in services such as clinical trials, firearm permits, and passport applications. Federal offices may be forced to close or operate on reduced hours, and industries closely linked to the federal government, such as federal contractors and tourist services near national parks, could experience disruptions and economic downturns.

Moreover, the financial markets may experience turbulence, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 0.2% reduction in economic growth per week of a shutdown. Confidence in the government’s ability to fulfill its basic responsibilities is also at stake, as emphasized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

WHAT ABOUT COURT CASES, THE WORK OF CONGRESS, AND PRESIDENTIAL PAY?

During a shutdown, the President and members of Congress continue their work and receive their salaries. However, staff members deemed nonessential face furloughs.

The Supreme Court, commencing its new term, remains unaffected by a short shutdown due to available funds derived from court fees. The broader federal judiciary would operate normally for at least the initial two weeks of October, with decisions about ongoing activities made at individual courts.

Importantly, the funding for the special counsels appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland remains unaffected by a government shutdown. This has implications for federal cases involving figures like Donald Trump and Hunter Biden.

HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE?

Government funding lapses have occurred since 1976, with 22 funding gaps and 10 resulting in worker furloughs. However, significant shutdowns have been more frequent since the presidency of Bill Clinton, often driven by budget disputes.

The longest government shutdown in recent memory occurred between 2018 and 2019, lasting 35 days and centered on funding for a border wall. It’s worth noting that this was a partial shutdown, as some appropriations bills had been passed.

WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO END A SHUTDOWN?

Ultimately, the responsibility for ending a government shutdown rests with Congress. Agreement between the House and Senate, coupled with the President’s approval, is required to fund the government. Currently, a deep impasse exists between the two sides, making a resolution elusive.

Pressure to end the shutdown may intensify if active-duty military members miss pay dates or if disruptions in air travel and border security become visible to the wider public. Congress often relies on continuing resolutions as stopgap measures to reopen government offices at current funding levels while budget negotiations unfold.

However, hardline Republicans advocate for a different approach, insisting on addressing all 12 government funding bills in a process historically marked by complexity and duration. President Trump’s support for these hardliners further raises the specter of an extended shutdown, lasting potentially weeks or longer.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Government Shutdown

More about Government Shutdown

• Government Shutdown Explained – NPR’s detailed explanation of government shutdowns.
• Government Shutdown: A Historical Perspective – Insights into the history of government shutdowns from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
• Economic Impact of Government Shutdowns – CNBC’s analysis of the economic consequences of government shutdowns.
• Government Shutdowns and Financial Markets – CNBC’s examination of how government shutdowns affect financial markets.
• Impact of Government Shutdown on Federal Workers – Reuters’ coverage of how government shutdowns affect federal workers.
• The Role of Continuing Resolutions in Ending Shutdowns – An analysis of the use of continuing resolutions in resolving government shutdowns by Roll Call.