What’s at stake when Turkey’s leader meets Putin in a bid to reestablish the Black Sea grain deal

In an upcoming meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the focus will be on reestablishing the Black Sea grain deal that Moscow terminated in July. This meeting is set to take place in Sochi, located on Russia’s southern coast, after speculation regarding the timing and location of the leaders’ rendezvous.

The origin of Russia’s departure from the grain agreement stems from the Kremlin’s refusal to renew the pact six weeks ago. This deal, which was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022, permitted the safe export of approximately 33 million metric tons (36 million tons) of grain and other commodities from three Ukrainian ports despite the ongoing conflict in the region. Russia’s decision to withdraw from the agreement was grounded in the claim that a parallel deal meant to facilitate Russian exports of food and fertilizer had not been upheld. Moscow expressed dissatisfaction with shipping and insurance restrictions that were impeding its agricultural trade, despite having achieved record wheat shipments since the previous year.

The role of Turkey in these negotiations is noteworthy. Following Putin’s withdrawal from the initiative, Erdogan has consistently expressed his commitment to renewing arrangements that prevented a food crisis in various regions, including parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Both Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of essential commodities such as wheat, barley, and sunflower oil, which are crucial for the economies of developing nations. Erdogan has maintained close ties with Putin throughout the 18-month-long conflict in Ukraine, during which Turkey refrained from imposing Western sanctions on Russia. Instead, Turkey has emerged as a key trading partner and logistical hub for Russia’s international trade activities. While maintaining its partnership with Russia, Turkey has also demonstrated support for Ukraine by supplying arms, engaging with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and endorsing Kyiv’s aspiration to join NATO.

It’s important to note that relations between Russia and Turkey have not always been smooth. Erdogan’s decision to allow five Ukrainian commanders to return home in July caused tension with Moscow. These commanders, who had been captured by Russia and transferred to Turkey, were initially supposed to remain in Turkish custody for the duration of the conflict. Despite past disagreements, Putin and Erdogan have fostered a close rapport over the years. Their relationship was fortified after Putin extended his support to Erdogan following a failed coup attempt in 2016. The alignment of traditional rivals Russia and Turkey has led to collaborations in various fields, such as the construction of the Turkstream gas pipeline and Turkey’s inaugural nuclear power plant. Although their partnership has raised concerns among Western allies, including the United States, due to events like Turkey’s acquisition of Russian-made air defense missiles in 2019, their relations have remained resilient.

In light of these circumstances, the forthcoming Sochi summit holds significance. The talks between the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers have preceded the summit, during which Russia presented a list of conditions that the Western nations need to fulfill for Ukraine’s Black Sea exports to recommence. Erdogan has indicated a degree of alignment with Putin’s stance on this matter. He emphasized that Putin has certain expectations from Western countries regarding the Black Sea deal and that it is imperative for these countries to take appropriate actions. Despite these ongoing negotiations, challenges exist, and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan characterized the process as an endeavor to comprehensively comprehend Russia’s position and demands, covering aspects ranging from financial transactions to insurance. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has also attempted to facilitate progress by providing concrete proposals to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, Moscow’s response indicated that they were not satisfied with these suggestions.

In conclusion, the impending meeting between Erdogan and Putin holds significant implications for the revival of the Black Sea grain deal. Both leaders, who possess extensive authority and have maintained a close rapport, are negotiating the terms to potentially resume a crucial agreement. As Turkey and Russia navigate this complex landscape, the outcome of their discussions will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects on agricultural trade, regional stability, and their bilateral relationship.

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More about reviving Black Sea grain deal

• Turkey’s Erdogan to meet with Russia’s Putin over Black Sea grain deal – Reuters article providing details about the meeting between Erdogan and Putin.
• Understanding the Black Sea Grain Deal – DW article explaining the background and significance of the Black Sea grain deal.
• Turkey-Russia Relations: A Timeline – Al Jazeera timeline highlighting the evolution of Turkey-Russia relations over time.
• Turkstream Gas Pipeline Project – An overview of the Turkstream gas pipeline project and its significance in Turkish-Russian relations.
• Russia-Turkey Relations: Geopolitical Dynamics – Council on Foreign Relations analysis on the geopolitical dynamics of Russia-Turkey relations.
• Ukraine Conflict: A Brief Overview – BBC article providing a brief overview of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and its implications.
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres – Official biography of U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, including his diplomatic efforts.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – Official profile of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, including his diplomatic engagements.
• Turkey’s Role in Regional Diplomacy – Wilson Center article discussing Turkey’s evolving role in regional diplomacy and negotiations.