Virginia Legislature Control Could Depend on Unpredictable State Senate Race

A pivotal race that has the potential to tip the balance of power in Virginia’s Legislature is far from a conventional duel between a Democrat and a Republican. The contest also features an unconventional independent candidate with a track record of electoral victories, who previously worked as an exotic dancer. Adding another layer of complexity is a write-in campaign spearheaded by a conservative restaurant owner known for his grilled cheese sandwiches.

The hotly contested race in Senate District 27, located in the Fredericksburg region, includes Republican Delegate Tara Durant. She gained national prominence two years ago when a 911 call she made during a Black Lives Matter protest went viral. She contends with Democrat Joel Griffin, a former Marine and ex-chair of the Stafford County Economic Development Authority, who is making his electoral debut.

However, the variable that confounds predictions is the independent candidacy of Stafford County Supervisor Monica Gary. Gary, who has previously been elected as an independent, declined invitations to run as a Democrat, emphasizing her capability to collaborate across party divisions.

“Although I tend toward liberal views, I maintain significant Republican support,” Gary noted, unapologetically stating her views on reproductive rights and acknowledging her past as a stripper.

Senate District 27 encompasses Fredericksburg and adjacent areas, among the most rapidly growing regions in Virginia. Issues like urban development, education, and transportation are key concerns that do not necessarily adhere to party orthodoxies.

Despite this, much of the campaign focus has gravitated toward the topic of abortion. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin has been pushing for an abortion ban post-15 weeks but has been stymied by a Democrat-controlled Senate. Consequently, Durant’s record opposing abortion has been spotlighted in several negative advertisements.

Durant’s campaign ceased responding to interview requests after initially demanding a topic list, which the media outlet The Big Big News chose not to supply.

During a debate hosted by Mary Washington University, Durant expressed her support for Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban, albeit with certain exceptions for cases such as rape and endangerment to maternal health.

Griffin, a Democrat, aims to maintain the current Virginia law but wants to constitutionalize abortion rights. Gary, the independent, also supports existing laws but proposes that only two physicians, instead of the current three, should authorize late-term abortions.

Gary’s candid discussion about her personal experiences with abortion and her past adds a unique dimension, making her an authentic candidate who appeals to voters from diverse political backgrounds.

Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor who moderated a candidates’ debate, stated that Gary’s presence on the ballot introduces an element of unpredictability.

“Gary is far more credible than most independent candidates,” Farnsworth commented.

The outcome of the race holds substantial importance for Governor Youngkin, who has invested considerably in Durant’s campaign and aided in her primary win over restaurateur Matt Strickland. Strickland, however, continues to criticize both Durant and Youngkin as “establishment Republicans” through his write-in campaign.

Gary told The Associated Press that she would caucus with Democrats if elected. She views herself as the most liberal candidate, labeling Griffin a nominal Democrat based on his previous donation to her campaign.

Griffin dismissed the question surrounding his past donation as irrelevant, saying, “This was before my political involvement and before understanding her extreme positions on key issues.”

Gary noted that her background as a stripper has not negatively impacted her campaign. She drew a parallel between her past occupation and the current political landscape.

“The two environments are strikingly similar,” Gary observed. “In both, people are driven by the quest for money and power, albeit for different reasons.”

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Virginia state Senate race

More about Virginia state Senate race

• Virginia State Senate Official Website
• Overview of Virginia’s 27th Senate District
• Candidate Profiles for Virginia State Senate District 27 Race
• Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Abortion Policy
• Mary Washington University Debate Overview
• The Big Big News Coverage on Virginia Senate Race
• Stafford County Economic Development Authority Background
• Analysis by Stephen Farnsworth, Political Science Professor at Mary Washington University
• Abortion Laws in Virginia: Current Status and Proposals
• AP Interview with Monica Gary on Her Candidacy