Unheeded Warnings Lead to Catastrophic Dam Failures in Libya

Despite clear cautionary signals, the long-standing alerts regarding the impending failure of the Derna dams in Libya were disregarded.

For an extended period, specialists had been emphasizing the critical risk of flooding to the two dams designed to shield approximately 90,000 inhabitants in northeastern Libya. They consistently advocated for urgent repairs to these structures, situated just above the coastal city of Derna. However, the politically fragmented administrations that have governed this turbulent North African country did not take action.

Abdelwanees Ashoor, a distinguished civil engineering academic, highlighted the grim consequences of a major flood in a research paper published last year in the Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences from Sabha University. He asserted, “In the instance of a significant flood, the ramifications could be calamitous for both the valley’s and the city’s residents.”

On the morning of September 11, the grim forecasts came to fruition when the people of Derna were jolted awake by resounding blasts, followed by devastating floodwaters. Both dams had failed, unleashing a torrent of water two stories high that caused widespread devastation and swept entire communities into the sea.

The flood resulted in a swift and large-scale loss of life, demolishing residential complexes and eradicating infrastructure like roads and bridges. Reports from the Libyan Red Crescent and the United Nations confirm that more than 11,300 lives were lost, including those of foreign nationals, and over 10,000 individuals are still unaccounted for a week after the catastrophe.

Corruption and negligence are endemic in Libya, a nation with a population of around 7 million that sits atop substantial oil and natural gas reserves. In 2022, Transparency International ranked Libya 171st out of 180 countries on its transparency index.

Libya has been in a state of turmoil since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, backed by NATO, led to the overthrow and subsequent killing of long-term dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Since then, Libya has fractured into two rival administrations. One is situated in the west and supported by a hodgepodge of unregulated armed factions, and the other in the east, aligned with the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Hifter.

The dams in question, Abu Mansour and Derna, were constructed in the 1970s by a Yugoslav company above Wadi Derna, which bisects the city. Abu Mansour, located 14 kilometers from Derna, stands at 74 meters and has a capacity of up to 22.5 million cubic meters of water. The Derna dam, also known as Belad, is closer to the city and can hold 1.5 million cubic meters of water. Despite their critical role in flood prevention, these dams had been in a state of disrepair for years, as noted by Saleh Emhanna, a geological researcher at the University of Ajdabia in Libya.

Further complicating the issue, state audit reports from 2021 indicated that despite an allocation of more than $2 million for maintenance in 2012 and 2013, no work was carried out. Responsibility for this failure was laid at the feet of the Ministry of Works and Natural Resources.

A Turkish company, Arsel Construction Company Ltd., was contracted in 2007 for maintenance work on the dams, completing its tasks by November 2012 according to its website. However, recent satellite imagery indicates that no third dam, which was also part of the contract, has been constructed.

Conflicting messages from authorities further muddled the situation ahead of the storm, with some advising evacuation while others told residents to stay put. The tragedy has erased as much as a quarter of Derna, underlining both the severity of the natural disaster and Libya’s existing vulnerabilities.

Chief prosecutor al-Sour has promised thorough investigations, and Derna’s mayor has been suspended pending an inquiry. Nonetheless, many are calling for an international investigation, fearing that a domestic one would yield no meaningful results in a nation governed largely by armed groups.

As calls for accountability grow, the challenges ahead are monumental. An investigation could implicate high-ranking officials on both sides of the country’s divide, presenting unique obstacles to delivering justice.

Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London, believes that such an inquiry would face considerable hurdles, given that it could implicate individuals at the highest echelons of power. “The task is uniquely challenging,” he concluded.

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More about Derna dams failure

• Transparency International’s Corruption Index
• Libyan Red Crescent Reports on Flood Victims
• United Nations Briefing on Libyan Crisis
• Sabha University Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences
• University of Ajdabia Research Publications
• Arsel Construction Company Ltd. Official Website
• U.N. Panel of Experts Report on Libyan State Funds and Infrastructure
• Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies on Libya
• Libyan Ministry of Works and Natural Resources
• Satellite Images of Flood Devastation in Libya