Uncertain Future for Africa as Failed Wagner Revolt Raises Questions on Mercenaries’ Fate

The notorious Russian mercenary group, whose recent uprising posed a threat to President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, has long been a merciless presence across Africa, prioritizing the protection of rulers at the expense of the general population. Despite the founder of the group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, being exiled to Belarus as punishment for the failed rebellion, there is little expectation that the dynamics will change.

The Wagner Group has inflicted brutality upon civilians in countries like the Central African Republic and Mali, crushing dissent and safeguarding their leaders’ grip on power. In return, Russia gains access to valuable natural resources and strategic ports for weapon shipments, while also receiving substantial payments that enrich the Kremlin and fund operations elsewhere, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Both Russia and the African leaders who rely on the services of Wagner’s fighters have no interest in severing these relationships. Nevertheless, many lingering questions remain after the dramatic revolt, such as the leadership of the thousands of fighters stationed across various African nations and the possibility of Moscow incorporating them into the Russian army.

In addition to financial gains, Putin has utilized Wagner fighters to expand Russia’s influence in the Middle East and Africa. Seeking security alliances with autocrats, coup leaders, and others shunned or overlooked by the United States and Europe due to their atrocious human rights records or conflicting Western interests.

When asked whether the mutiny by Wagner over the weekend could weaken Russia’s position in Africa, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov assured a state-run TV network that security assistance to African countries would continue. He specifically mentioned the Central African Republic and Mali, emphasizing that Russian government officials maintain ongoing contact with leaders in those countries.

Lavrov stated that he has not observed any signs of panic or change among African nations regarding the revolt against Moscow. However, amid the prevailing uncertainty, there is at least some confusion regarding what lies ahead.

In Mali, where at least 1,000 Wagner fighters replaced French troops in combating Islamic extremists, the United States alleges that the country serves as a transit point for arms shipments to Russian forces in Ukraine. However, the Malian government denies employing Wagner for anything other than training purposes.

An anonymous officer in the Malian Air Force revealed that Russian fighters play a vital role in combat due to a shortage of pilots and operational aircraft. The officer expressed that if Russia requested the Malian government to terminate cooperation with Wagner, they would be obliged to comply, as their greater interest lies with the Russian government rather than Wagner.

As part of the agreement to end the rebellion, Putin presented Wagner fighters with three options: join the Russian military, relocate to Belarus like Prigozhin, or return to their home countries. It remains unclear if these options also extend to Wagner fighters deployed in Africa.

In the Central African Republic, a statue in the capital, Bangui, stands as a tribute to the Russian mercenaries who have helped maintain President Faustin-Archange Touadera in power. Lavrov confirmed that hundreds of Russian fighters would continue to remain there.

Regardless of who assumes ultimate control over the Wagner fighters in the Central African Republic, their authority derives from a clear source, according to Jordy Christopher, a special adviser to Touadera. Christopher stated, “Prigozhin is merely a pawn in the art of war; moreover, he is only the tip of the iceberg.”

Wagner operates in approximately 30 countries, as reported by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and faces numerous allegations of human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings. The group holds significant influence in African nations where armed conflicts have compelled leaders to seek Russian assistance, such as Libya and Sudan.

“The leadership in these African countries relies on them,” affirmed Federica Saini Fasanotti, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology.

Nevertheless, some experts argue that the revolt against the Kremlin will prompt African countries dependent on Wagner to approach their engagement with Russia more cautiously, particularly as Putin faces the most significant challenge to his authority in over two decades.

“Developments in Russia will likely make many African countries more wary in their future dealings with Russia,” stated Ryan Cummings, Director of the Africa-focused security consulting company Signal Risk.

Any unexpected internal developments in Russia pose potential threats to African leaders who have become reliant on foreign fighters to maintain their hold on power, as is the case in Mali and the Central African Republic.

Reporting by Asadu from Abuja, Nigeria, and Irwin from Dakar, Senegal.

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