Ukraine Strives to Outmaneuver a Distracted Russian Army

Ukrainian commanders, after three postponements, finally found the opportune moment to launch an ambush. Shrouded in darkness, the 129th brigade of Kyiv moved forward, launching a surprise attack on oblivious Russian soldiers.

The Russian troops along the front line were caught off-guard.

The successful retaking of Neskuchne, a small village in the eastern Donetsk region on June 10, portrays Ukraine’s initial counteroffensive strategy. They rely on the surprise factor, which, when successful, leads to gradual territorial and intelligence gains.

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“We had several plans. I believe we chose the most effective one: to arrive quietly, unannounced,” expressed Serhii Zherebylo, the deputy commander of the battalion that recaptured Neskuchne, aged 41.

Across the extensive 1,500-kilometer front line, Ukrainian forces are endeavoring to exhaust the opposition and remodel battle lines to establish more advantageous conditions for a significant eastward push. One approach could involve dividing Russian forces to isolate the Crimean Peninsula, unlawfully annexed by Moscow in 2014, from the rest of its controlled territory.

The Ukrainian forces’ morale was bolstered last week due to an armed revolt within Russia, presenting the biggest challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s power in over two decades. However, the impact of this internal rebellion commanded by Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin under the Wagner Group, on the course of the war is yet to be ascertained.

Despite being a substantial distraction for Russia’s military and political leaders, experts suggest the infighting has so far had minimal influence on the battlefield.

For the past four days, Ukraine has heightened operations around Bakhmut, an eastern city taken over by Wagner forces after prolonged fierce fighting, and subsequently surrendered to Russian soldiers, who continue to lose territory on their southern flank.

Despite the internal revolt, the Russian military’s front-line strength remains unaltered.

It’s unclear where Ukraine will aim for a decisive breakthrough, but any success will depend on newly formed, Western-equipped brigades not yet deployed. Presently, Russia’s heavily fortified locations and relative air dominance are impeding Ukraine’s progress.

It’s challenging to determine who holds the upper hand: Russia has well-established manpower and ammunition, while Ukraine exhibits versatility, modern weaponry, and tactical finesse.

As the autumn muddy season approaches in four months, some Ukrainian commanders express concerns about the ticking clock.

“Although Ukrainian forces are making gradual and consistent advancements, they still lack the operational initiative, implying they are not setting the pace and terms of action,” analyzed Dylan Lee Lehrke, an analyst at British security intelligence firm Janes.

“This perception has led some observers to deem the counteroffensive as underperforming,” said Lehrke. However, it was never expected to replicate the swift liberation of the eastern Kharkiv region by Ukraine last year because “Russian forces had ample time to prepare fortifications.”

According to Putin, the counteroffensive has resulted in substantial losses for Ukraine, including 259 tanks and 790 armored vehicles, though these claims could not be independently confirmed.

Several battle zones are experiencing intense combat.

A dam collapse in the southern Kherson region last month has modified the landscape along the Dnieper River, allowing more

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More about counteroffensive

• Ukraine Launches Counteroffensive Strategy
• Russian Army Infighting Distracts from Ukraine’s Advances
• Ukraine’s Tactics to Wear Down Russian Forces
• Impact of Internal Rebellion on Ukraine-Russia War
• Successes and Challenges in Ukraine’s Counteroffensive