Ukraine keeps up pressure following Russian declaration of victory in Bakhmut

51

Amidst the aerial surveillance provided by a drone, Ukrainian battalion commander Oleg Shiryaev alerted his nearby troops in trenches about the advancing Russian forces towards a cluster of trees near the city of Bakhmut.

Leading the 225th Battalion of the 127th Kharkiv Territorial Defense Brigade, Shiryaev swiftly ordered his mortar team to prepare for action. With a target in sight, a mortar tube erupted with a vibrant orange blast, creating a fresh crater on an already scarred hillside.

“We press forward,” Shiryaev declared as at least one drone image captured a downed Russian fighter. “We fight relentlessly for every tree, every trench, every dugout.”

Despite Russian forces proclaiming victory in the eastern city last month, marking the longest and deadliest battle since their full-scale invasion of Ukraine began 15 months prior, Ukrainian defenders like Shiryaev refuse to retreat. Instead, they sustain the pressure and continue the fight from positions on the western outskirts of Bakhmut.

This resistance provides Moscow’s commanders with additional concerns ahead of the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, which appears to be taking shape.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar revealed that Russia seeks to create an illusion of calm around Bakhmut while maintaining artillery shelling at levels similar to those during the city’s intense battle. She described the conflict as transitioning into a new phase.

“The battle for the Bakhmut area is ongoing, albeit in different forms,” stated Maliar, dressed in her characteristic military fatigues during an interview at a military media center in Kyiv. Russian forces currently struggle, but fail, to dislodge Ukrainian fighters from the strategically advantageous “dominant heights” overlooking Bakhmut.

“We are firmly holding our ground,” she affirmed.

From the Kremlin’s perspective, the region surrounding Bakhmut is merely a fragment of the over 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front line that Russian military forces must secure. This task may become more challenging with the withdrawal of mercenaries from the private military contractor Wagner Group, who played a role in capturing the city. They will be replaced by Russian soldiers.

For Ukrainian forces, recent efforts have been opportunistic, seizing small advantages against the enemy and securing strategic positions, particularly from the northwest and southwest flanks where the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade has been active, officials reported.

Russia had envisioned the capture of Bakhmut as a partial realization of its ambition to gain control of the eastern Donbas region, Ukraine’s industrial heartland. Now, Russian forces are forced to regroup, rotate fighters, and rearm to merely hold the city. Wagner Group’s owner announced their withdrawal after acknowledging the loss of over 20,000 men.

Maliar described the nine-month struggle against Wagner forces in almost existential terms, emphasizing that if they hadn’t been vanquished during the defense of Bakhmut, tens of thousands of these mercenaries could have advanced deeper into Ukrainian territory.

The fate of Bakhmut, now largely in ruins, has been overshadowed in recent days by near-nightly attacks on Kyiv, unclaimed drone strikes near Moscow, and the growing anticipation of Ukraine’s government attempting to regain lost ground.

Nevertheless, the battle for the city could have lasting consequences. Moscow has glorified its capture, evident in the triumphalism displayed in Russian media. Any relinquishment of Russia’s hold would be a political embarrassment for President Vladimir Putin.

Michael Kofman from the Center for Naval Analyses, a US research group, noted in a recent podcast that the victory introduces new challenges in maintaining control over Bakhmut.

With the departure of Wagner fighters, Russian forces are increasingly tied down in Bakhmut and may find it difficult to defend, Kofman stated in an interview with “War on the Rocks,” posted on Tuesday.

“And so they may not hold on to Bakhmut, and in the end, the whole endeavor may have been in vain for them,” he added.

An anonymous Western official mentioned that Russian airborne forces are heavily involved in replacing the departing Wagner troops, a move likely to antagonize airborne leadership who view this duty as further erosion of their previously esteemed status within the military.

Ukrainian forces have been incrementally regaining slivers of territory on the flanks, gaining a few hundred meters (yards) per day to solidify defensive lines and explore opportunities to recapture some urban areas of the city, according to a Ukrainian analyst.

“The objective in Bakhmut is not Bakhmut itself, now reduced to ruins,” stated military analyst Roman Svitan during a phone conversation. “The goal for Ukrainians is to secure the western heights and maintain a defensive arc outside the city.”

On a broader scale, Ukraine aims to burden Russian forces, seize the initiative in advance of their counteroffensive, and shape the battle environment, a strategy known as “shaping operations.” This approach is intended to force the enemy into a defensive and reactive posture.

Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for Ukrainian forces in the east, expressed that the strategic goal in the Bakhmut area is to “restrain the enemy and eliminate as many personnel and equipment as possible” while preventing a Russian breakthrough or flanking maneuver.

Analyst Mathieu Boulègue questioned whether the battle for Bakhmut would hold valuable lessons or significance for the war ahead.

He emphasized the importance of military superiority but also highlighted the significance of “information superiority,” which involves creating deception, obscuring one’s own forces, and operating discreetly.

Boulègue, a consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank in London, claimed that such tactics “could determine which side gains an advantage, catches the other off-guard, and turns the tide of the war.”

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Bakhmut counteroffensive

More about Bakhmut counteroffensive

• Big Big News coverage of the war in Ukraine: Stay updated with the latest news and developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
• Center for Naval Analyses: Gain insights into military analysis and research on various global conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Chatham House: Explore the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House for expert analysis and commentary on the region’s geopolitical dynamics.
• War on the Rocks: Access thought-provoking articles and podcasts on defense, foreign policy, and military affairs, including insightful discussions on the Bakhmut battle.