Two Distinct Campaign Approaches Unfold in Iowa: Trump’s Dominance and Rivals’ Strategies

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Nikki Haley, a prominent contender in the upcoming presidential race, is making significant strides in Iowa, reserving her largest venue in the state since launching her campaign. Her aim is to gather a crowd of 600 in a Des Moines suburb, an impressive feat for most candidates but still dwarfed by the consistently larger gatherings convened by Donald Trump, who continues to exert substantial influence over the Republican field for the 2024 Iowa caucuses, mere months away.

The former president is scheduled to appear in rural southeast Iowa shortly after Haley’s event, with expectations of at least 1,000 attendees. Effectively, there are two parallel campaigns taking shape in Iowa: Trump employs a strategy of holding fewer but more substantial events, showcasing the robustness of his organization and his sway over the GOP base, while his rivals opt for the conventional route, participating in traditional candidate forums and meet-and-greets as they seek ways to chip away at his lead or secure second place.

Although the landscape may evolve prior to the January 15 caucuses, some campaigns are contemplating a shift in expectations. They believe that a close runner-up to Trump in Iowa, or even a candidate who falls short of Trump but pulls ahead of other rivals, could start garnering consolidated support, potentially forcing others to withdraw.

Gentry Collins, who managed Mitt Romney’s campaign during the 2008 caucuses, asserts, “What’s crystal clear to me is that until there is a winnowing event, you’re never going to get to the head-to-head that it would require to have somebody other than Trump win the nomination. That winnowing starts in Iowa and it changes the dynamics of the race.”

Let’s delve into the strategies of some of the leading contenders in Iowa:

RON DESANTIS

Facing concerns about campaign overspending and donor apprehension, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has restructured his approach, shifting toward a more focused Iowa-centric strategy. Despite a decline in his national support from earlier this year, he has hired David Polyansky, an experienced Iowa strategist, as a senior deputy campaign manager. DeSantis has also leaned heavily on the super PAC “Never Back Down,” which has undertaken many tasks typically handled directly by candidates. They have organized nearly 50 of DeSantis’ Iowa appearances, assembled a robust team of 22 paid staff in Iowa, and spent nearly $8 million on television and digital ads this year, the most significant investment among all political groups in the state.

DeSantis may be looking to weather three second-place finishes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, hoping to set the stage for a head-to-head confrontation with Trump before the Super Tuesday primaries in March.

NIKKI HALEY

Nikki Haley’s team sought to generate anticipation ahead of the second debate, with hopes that her dynamic performance, including several confrontations with rivals, would translate into a boost in the polls. She has made noticeable strides, drawing larger crowds during her recent visits to rural eastern Iowa. Additionally, Haley has secured notable Iowa GOP talent, including Troy Bishop, who held a key organizational role for Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley.

TIM SCOTT

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott has invested heavily in advertising, with his campaign and supporting super PAC spending approximately $10 million to introduce him to Iowans. Scott’s strategy revolves around leveraging his advertising presence to build familiarity with voters and then engaging in critical face-to-face interactions, a traditional Iowa campaign approach.

Scott has adopted a more assertive stance, taking aim at rivals such as Trump, DeSantis, and Haley for their stance on a federal abortion ban. This newfound assertiveness was evident during the recent debate when he criticized Haley’s proposal to increase the gas tax.

VIVEK RAMASWAMY

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has been an active presence in Iowa, with an emphasis on grassroots campaigning. He has held nearly 70 campaign events across the state and gained attention for his youthful charisma and outsider status, drawing parallels to Trump. However, his lack of political experience and some unfavorable impressions among Iowans, particularly concerning his faith, have posed challenges.

Ramaswamy’s Iowa team is relatively small but includes prominent figures like former state Sen. Jake Chapman and former Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz. His expressions of faith, including references to “God is real,” may resonate with evangelical Christians in Iowa.

MIKE PENCE

Former Vice President Mike Pence, despite his strong association with evangelical Christians, faces persistent challenges, including a false perception that he could have refused to certify the 2020 election results. This misperception has led to high unfavorable ratings among likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa.

Nonetheless, Pence remains active in Iowa, with numerous campaign stops planned. He is second only to Ramaswamy in terms of the number of events conducted in the state.

In summary, as the 2024 Iowa caucuses draw nearer, the contenders are pursuing diverse strategies, each with the goal of securing a strong position in a field still heavily influenced by the presence of Donald Trump. The outcome of these efforts will play a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the race for the Republican nomination.

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Contributors: Deepa Bharath (Los Angeles), Linley Sanders (Washington), Will Weissert (Grand Mound, Iowa)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about 2024 Iowa Campaigns

More about 2024 Iowa Campaigns

• 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus Analysis
• Nikki Haley’s Campaign
• Ron DeSantis’ Campaign Strategy
• Tim Scott’s Iowa Advertising
• Vivek Ramaswamy’s Campaign Events
• Mike Pence’s Challenges in Iowa
• Importance of the Iowa Caucuses