Trump won’t be at the GOP’s first presidential debate. But his presence will be felt

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Although absent from the physical stage, Donald Trump’s presence will loom large at the inaugural Republican presidential primary debate. As the contenders gather in Milwaukee for this event hosted by Fox News, they are poised to grapple with the challenge of distinguishing themselves from Trump, who currently maintains a commanding lead in the race. This task requires delicate navigation, as the candidates must decide how closely to align themselves with Trump’s more unconventional stances, including his unsubstantiated claims about widespread election fraud in 2020.

With less than half a year until the Iowa caucuses kick off the GOP presidential nomination process, this debate assumes a critical role in enabling lesser-known candidates to introduce themselves to a broad audience that is just beginning to engage with the race. Notably, the pressure on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is particularly intense. Despite his high-profile campaign launch in May, DeSantis has struggled to gain momentum and is currently striving to maintain his second-place position.

Former Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan has emphasized the significance of the debate, stating that it presents a crucial opportunity for the candidates to connect with the electorate. However, the stakes are arguably the highest for DeSantis. Hogan asserts that this is a make-or-break moment for DeSantis, a time for him to prove his capability as a candidate. Failure to do so could spell the end of his campaign.

The debate roster includes prominent figures such as South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.

This primetime debate unfolds at a pivotal juncture for the Republican Party. Trump’s dominant position in the race raises questions about the competitiveness of the primary. However, his vulnerabilities in a general election are evident, amplified by multiple criminal indictments that span accusations ranging from mishandling classified information to involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election and making payments to silence women.

The debate coincides with Trump’s impending travel to Georgia to face criminal charges. Nonetheless, Trump’s standing in the primary has not diminished but rather strengthened in response to these legal challenges. This trajectory points to the likelihood of the GOP nominating a candidate who could potentially face challenges in a general election. Recent polling indicates that a substantial portion of Americans would be hesitant to support Trump if he were the GOP nominee.

The event is hosted at Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum, where preparations, such as metal barricades, are in place. The city, predominantly Democratic, extends a welcome to Republicans, highlighting its role as a battleground location. The Republican National Committee, in collaboration with Milwaukee officials, is showcasing local businesses as part of an event ahead of the upcoming convention, further underlining the city’s significance.

Candidates had to meet polling and donor thresholds and pledge loyalty to participate in the debate, which will be moderated by Fox’s Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. Trump’s decision to boycott the debate is a setback for the network, which had actively sought his participation. Instead, Trump will share a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson during the debate’s broadcast.

Even in Trump’s absence, his presence will be palpable at the debate. MacCallum has made it clear that she will press candidates on their response to Trump’s indictments. The candidates have been cautious in directly confronting Trump due to his substantial support from the GOP base. The debate will offer insight into how assertively his rivals address him.

During the debate, DeSantis is anticipated to be a focal point, given his position as the frontrunner on stage. His campaign aims to focus on policy and his vision for the nation’s future, while also fending off attacks from other candidates.

In conclusion, the first Republican presidential primary debate will be marked by Trump’s absence but not his influence. The candidates face the challenge of distinguishing themselves from Trump’s policies and positions while simultaneously addressing his presence in the race. For lower-polling candidates, this debate serves as a critical platform to introduce themselves to a larger audience. Amid Trump’s dominance and the evolving dynamics of the GOP, this event will play a significant role in shaping the trajectory of the primary race.

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