Trump enjoys strong support among Republicans. The general election could be a different story

Donald Trump takes pride in his strong and growing support among Republicans, claiming that every new indictment only strengthens his standing. Indeed, recent polls by The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research show that 63% of Republicans want Trump to run again, a rise from the previous 55%, and 70% now view him favorably.

However, there are significant warning signs for Trump as he faces potential vulnerability in the general election. Although 74% of Republicans indicate they would back him in November 2024, 53% of all Americans state they would absolutely not support him, with an additional 11% saying they would likely not.

This underscores the concerns of some within the Republican Party, who praise Trump’s presidential term but fear he cannot secure a win in the general election, where support beyond the GOP base is vital. These concerns are underlined by his loss in the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020 elections, with the latter defeat being falsely blamed on voter fraud by Trump.

His standing with the broader public appears to have declined since the last presidential election, marred by his association with the violence at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and ongoing legal troubles. A staggering 91 total felony charges now hang over Trump in cases across various states.

In contrast, opposition to Biden’s reelection appears less firmly rooted. Only 43% of Americans are certain they would not back him, plus another 11% who probably wouldn’t. Despite Trump’s insistence on revisiting his grievances about the last election, officials and courts have thoroughly dismissed his allegations of fraud.

Trump’s focus on his own grievances, rather than those of the voters, may further alienate independents and swing voters essential for a general election win.

As Trump’s legal challenges mount, other Republican candidates are courting voters, and some evidence of concern about Trump’s indictments is emerging among his base. While supporters like Rich Stricklett see the charges as politically driven, others like Mary Kinney think it’s time for the party to move forward with a new generation candidate.

However, it would be hasty to predict that Trump’s legal problems will necessarily lead to his political downfall. Figures like former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich argue that Trump’s positioning as an anti-establishment figure could resonate with many voters, even in a general election.

The poll, conducted from Aug. 10-14 with a sample of 1,165 adults, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points and highlights a complex political landscape for both Trump and the Republican Party as they look to the future.

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• The Big Big News-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
• Federal and state election officials’ statements on election integrity
• Court decisions regarding Trump’s allegations of voter fraud
• Coverage of Trump’s legal cases in Georgia, New York, Washington, D.C., and Florida