Tired of Hearing About Extreme Heat? Scientists Say This Reflects Global Warming

The summer of 2023 appears to be stuck in a cycle of constantly shattering temperature records.

Almost every major climate-monitoring institution announced June as the hottest June ever recorded. Then July 4 became the world’s hottest day, albeit unofficially, as reported by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. This record was swiftly eclipsed by July 5 and July 6. Following these were the hottest week ever, confirmed more officially by the World Meteorological Organization and the Japanese Meteorological Agency.

As a summer of unprecedented weather records dominates the headlines, meteorologists and scientists highlight that these instances provide a snapshot of the broader picture: a warming planet due to climate change. This depiction is vividly represented in the heat-associated reds and purples that color weather maps on the internet, in print media, and on television.

Behind these figures and maps lie real, lethal consequences. Over 100 lives have been lost to heatwaves in the U.S. and India this summer alone.

These records are critical for individuals involved in infrastructure development and agriculture, as they need to prepare for the worst-case scenarios, according to Russell Vose, director of the climate analysis group at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Vose also presides over a committee on national records.

In the previous 30 days, approximately 5,000 heat and rainfall records have been shattered or matched in the U.S., and over 10,000 records set globally, as per NOAA. Texas cities and towns alone have registered 369 daily high temperature records since June 1.

Since the turn of the millennium, the U.S. has set roughly twice as many records for heat compared to cold.

“Records dating back to the late 19th century indicate a consistent decade-on-decade rise in temperatures,” stated Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and custodian of the agency’s climate records. “What we’re witnessing now certainly increases the likelihood that 2023 will be the hottest year on record. My calculations currently indicate a 50-50 chance.”

The larger the geographical area and the longer the period during which records are set, the more likely these conditions represent climate change instead of daily weather variations. Therefore, having the hottest global June is “extremely unlikely” without climate change, as opposed to a single city’s daily record, pointed out Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.

However, certain local anomalies are noteworthy: this summer, Death Valley approached the hottest temperature in modern history, although the record of 134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.7 Celsius) is disputed.

Phoenix made headlines among major U.S. cities on Tuesday when it experienced its 19th consecutive day of extreme heat, with temperatures of 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) or above. The heat persisted, extending to a 22nd straight day on Friday. Along with the daytime heat, a record-breaking streak of nights with temperatures above 90 Fahrenheit (32.2 Celsius) was also observed.

Vose noted that “extremes naturally pique human interest; it’s similar to the fascination with the Guinness Book of World Records. Human curiosity is naturally drawn towards the extreme.”

Yet, the numbers can sometimes fail to accurately represent the situation.

The scientific community “lacks the language to convey what it feels like,” stated Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field, who co-chaired a landmark United Nations report in 2012 warning of the risks of extreme weather due to climate change.

“Although it may not capture the human experience, it does emphasize that we’re inhabiting a different world,” said Field regarding the records.

Consider the individual statistics as brush strokes in a painting of global climate, suggests Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald. Avoid focusing on any single number.

“The details matter, but what’s truly significant, especially for the impressionist painting, is the overall view when you take a step back and observe everything that’s happening,” Mahowald said.

According to her and other climate scientists, long-term warming caused by the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas is the primary driver of rising temperatures. Additional temporary boosts come from natural El Nino warming across parts of the Pacific, as the planet is experiencing this year.

El Nino is a natural, temporary warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns and adds an additional warming factor. This year, a strong El Nino formed in June. Over the previous three years, El Nino’s cooling counterpart, La Nina, mitigated some of the human-induced heat.

An intense El Nino escalated global temperatures in 1998, which was followed by less warming and even some stagnant temperatures for a few years until the next major El Nino, explained Mahowald.

While weather won’t deteriorate annually and shouldn’t be expected to do so, it will become more severe over time, she added.

Richard Rood of the University of Michigan formerly blogged about climate records for Weather Underground, but in 2014, he stopped due to the constant emergence of new extremes.

“I believe we need to move beyond the record-setting sensationalism at some level and truly buckle down to the challenging work,” he stated, emphasizing the need for people to adapt to a warmer world and get serious about reducing emissions that lead to hotter, more extreme weather.

NOAA collates weather observations from tens of thousands of stations across the U.S., and its global calculations include data from over 100,000 stations, Vose explained.

Upon receiving these records, the agency validates their quality and determines their historical significance. NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information in North Carolina is the adjudicator of national records, while local National Weather Service offices manage those for individual cities, Vose added.

An international committee handles world records and occasionally, scientists debate the reliability of century-old data. These disagreements arise over issues like determining the hottest temperature ever recorded on Earth.

Verifying records takes time. Due to a backlog of extreme weather events to analyze, officials haven’t yet approved 130 degree Fahrenheit records from 2020 and 2021 in Death Valley, Vose mentioned.

“Our main responsibility is keeping track – understanding what happened and how unusual it was,” he said. “It’s not as if we take pleasure in stating it was the warmest year on record. Again.”

The broader picture is what really matters, said Victor Gensini, a climate scientist at Northern Illinois University.

“Observe them all together as part of the atmospheric symphony,” Gensini suggested. “There are countless clear signs that we are simply not living in the same type of climate as before.”

Keep up with AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://bigbignews.net/climate-and-environment

Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

Big Big News climate and environmental coverage is supported by several private foundations. Find out more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP holds full responsibility for all content.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Record-breaking Summer Heat 2023

More about Record-breaking Summer Heat 2023

• NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/
• University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer: https://climatereanalyzer.org/
• World Meteorological Organization: https://public.wmo.int/
• Japanese Meteorological Agency: https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html
• NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/
• United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): https://www.ipcc.ch/
• Weather Underground: https://www.wunderground.com/
• Northern Illinois University Climate Science: https://www.niu.edu/geog/
• AP’s Climate and Environment Coverage: https://bigbignews.net/climate-and-environment