The U.S. Faces Unprecedented Political Danger as 2024 Election Approaches

The recent fatal shooting of a 74-year-old Utah man by FBI agents after his threats to assassinate President Joe Biden underlines the increasingly treacherous political climate in the U.S.

A week prior, a 52-year-old Texan received a three-and-a-half-year prison term for threatening to kill Arizona election officials. Days before that, a 56-year-old Michigan woman faced charges for fraudulently purchasing firearms for her mentally ill son, who had made threats against both President Biden and Michigan’s Democratic governor.

A growing trend of threats against public figures has been apparent over the past few years, resulting in significant challenges for law enforcement and the health of American democracy.

The Capitol Police revealed that they investigated more than twice as many threats against Congress members last year as they did four years earlier. The false claims by former President Donald Trump about the 2020 election being stolen have led to an explosion in threats against election workers, causing many seasoned professionals to leave their positions or consider doing so.

Local elected officials have also been targeted. In a 2021 report, the National League of Cities found that 81% of local officials had received threats, with 87% seeing the problem grow worse.

Trump’s lasting influence has played a role in changing the norms of public behavior and communication, according to Jake Spano, mayor of the Minneapolis suburb of St. Louis Park.

These threats represent more than a mere coarsening of the national dialogue. Experts caution that they might signal future political violence.

In recent years, violence and threats have escalated, including the 2017 shooting at a GOP baseball practice and an assault on then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband. Last year also saw arrests outside the homes of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and other political figures.

Former President Trump’s persistent criticism of the FBI and the Justice Department has been coupled with accusations related to his legal troubles, including calling the special counsel overseeing his cases “deranged.”

As the 2024 election and Trump’s ongoing legal battles approach, there are concerns that heightened rhetoric may provoke more violence, particularly from individual attackers acting impulsively, warns Javed Ali, a former senior FBI counterterrorism official.

Social media has amplified private grievances into public threats, while some argue that federal law enforcement has been slow to respond to organized right-wing violence. The endorsement of violent groups by some authority figures adds a new layer of risk.

The impact of political and extremist messaging online can be vast, and even if it only motivates a tiny portion of individuals, it can still pose a significant threat.

Both sides of the political spectrum have a responsibility, with some arguing that the danger and rhetoric are more pronounced on the right. However, experts warn against assuming that a significant number of Americans are radicalized enough to participate in politically motivated violence.

A study by Joe Mernyk, a doctoral student at Stanford University, found actual support for political violence to be quite low among both Democrats and Republicans. However, the perception of support within the opposing party was much higher.

Mernyk emphasized the necessity of understanding that individuals like the man in Utah are not indicative of the entire Republican Party or its attitudes.

Contributions to this report were made by Sam Metz in Provo, Utah, and Colleen Slevin in Denver.

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• FBI
• U.S. Capitol Police
• National League of Cities
• University of Michigan
• Brennan Center for Justice
• Stanford University’s Polarization and Social Change Lab
• Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh