Spain on the Brink of Political Deadlock Following Inconclusive Conservative Victory

Spain seems set for a political impasse, as Sunday’s indecisive general elections left both the right and left-wing factions without a straightforward roadmap to establish a new government.

The right-wing Popular Party emerged victorious in the elections, but their success didn’t quite measure up to their ambitions of displacing the incumbent Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Instead, the party, helmed by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, fell short of the anticipated results according to most pre-election polls.

Despite coming second, the Sánchez-led Socialists along with their political allies saw the results as a triumph. Their combined factions, with a marginally greater number of seats than the Popular Party and the far-right, were in a position to potentially support Sánchez, with a total of 172 seats to the right-wing coalition’s 170.

“The Popular Party’s win seems more a Pyrrhic victory than anything, as they aren’t in a position to form a government,” commented political analyst Verónica Fumanal, suggesting the conservatives would have to court the far-right, which may still prove insufficient. “I foresee a parliamentary deadlock.”

The tight election results are expected to usher in weeks of political manoeuvring and uncertainty surrounding the country’s leadership future. Only after the new Congress of Deputies members are sworn in will the next prime minister be elected.

However, the chances of Sánchez securing the backing of 176 lawmakers, the absolute majority required to establish a government, seem slim. The divided election results have cast the hardline Catalan separatist party, Junts, in the role of a potential kingmaker for Sánchez. The cost may be steep, with Junts likely demanding a referendum on independence for Catalonia.

After the election results positioned her party as key to the balance of power, Míriam Nogueras of Junts said, “We won’t prop up Pedro Sánchez without gaining something in return.”

According to a count of 98% of the votes, the Popular Party is set to gain 136 seats. Coupled with the projected 33 seats for the far-right Vox party and an additional seat from an allied party, the Popular Party still falls seven seats short of the absolute majority.

The Socialists, on the other hand, are expected to secure 122 seats, a gain of two. With the support of the 31 seats held by their junior coalition partner Sumar and several smaller factions, Sánchez could potentially garner a greater total than the sum of the right-wing parties.

Celebrating with a crowd at the Socialist headquarters in Madrid, Sánchez claimed that “Spain and all the citizens who voted have spoken loud and clear. The regressive bloc that aimed to undo all our achievements has failed.”

Choosing not to wait until December for a national vote, Sánchez surprised his adversaries by advancing the election, banking on increased support from his followers. Even if this results in a re-ballot, Sánchez can view this election night as another triumph against the odds in his career.

Yet, Feijóo may wish to switch places with his rival.

Claiming his right to establish a government as the party with the most votes, Feijóo celebrated his party’s first national election victory since 2016, saying that “it’s our turn to form a government, as has always been the case in Spanish democracy.”

Despite their election win, the Popular Party and the far-right Vox party’s strategic failure and fear of such a coalition in power have seemingly driven left-leaning voters to the polls.

Concerns among EU members like Germany and France regarding a shift to the right in another member state have been eased with the Vox party losing 19 seats compared to four years prior.

Yet, the potential inclusion of the far-right party in government, albeit as a junior member to the Popular Party, appears to have been a catalyst for the left’s resurgence.

Spain’s new Parliament is set to convene in a month, after which King Felipe VI will designate one party leader to form a new government. If lawmakers fail to agree within three months, new elections will be held.

Despite the soaring summer temperatures expected to deter many from their usual polling stations, voter turnout seemed robust with a sharp increase in postal voting requests.

“We have the heat, but the right to exercise our vote freely is stronger than the heat,” said Rosa María Valladolid-Prieto, a 79-year-old voter in Barcelona.

Joseph Wilson, a writer for Big Big News, reported from Barcelona. AP journalists Aritz Parra, Renata Brito, David Brunat, Iain Sullivan, María Gestoso, Alicia Léon and José María García also contributed to this article.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Spain’s Political Deadlock

More about Spain’s Political Deadlock

• Spain’s General Election
• Political Deadlock in Spain
• Profile of Spain’s Socialist Party
• Overview of Spain’s Popular Party
• The Role of Junts in Spain’s Political Scenario