Spain Braces for Potential Far-Right Leadership since Franco Era

Spaniards will head to the voting booths this Sunday in a closely watched election that may see Spain as the latest EU member to witness a right-wing populist surge. This shift, if it materializes, will mark a significant departure from five years of left-wing governance.

Here’s what you should understand about this critical vote.

WHAT ARE THE KEY ISSUES?

Current polling data indicates a lean towards the political right, suggesting the possibility of a neo-fascist party forming part of the upcoming Spanish government. The far-right hasn’t held power in Spain since the democratic transition following the demise of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.

The elections are expected to yield no outright majority, leaving the voters to decide between another left-leaning coalition or a potential coalition of the right and far-right.

Leading in the polls is the center-right Popular Party (PP) and the far-right Vox party, both framing this vote as a referendum on “Sanchismo”—a term coined by the PP referring to what they perceive as the autocratic tendencies, radical ideologies, and consistent dishonesty of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government.

On the other side, the Socialists, along with a new leftist movement, Sumar—which amalgamates 15 small leftist parties for the first time—warn of potential threats to post-Franco advancements if the right assumes power.

WHAT TRIGGERED THE EARLY ELECTIONS?

Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced early elections following a severe defeat of his Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party and its minor far-left coalition partner, Unidas Podemos (United We Can), in the local and regional elections on May 28.

Despite previously expressing intentions to complete his four-year term with elections due in December, Sánchez reversed his decision post-May, asserting the necessity for Spaniards to shape the country’s political future without further delay.

WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED SINCE MAY 28?

The Popular Party emerged as the most-supported party from the local and regional elections, earning the mandate to assume power in all but a few municipalities and one or two regions.

Subsequently, the PP and Vox have formed governing coalitions in about 140 cities and towns and expanded their co-governance to two additional regions.

Meanwhile, leftist parties, having recovered somewhat from their initial losses, have reconsolidated their power, leaving Sunday’s election results unpredictable.

WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE?

The formation of a PP-Vox government would signify another EU member state shifting decisively to the right, mirroring recent developments in Sweden, Finland, and Italy. Such a transition raises concerns in countries like Germany and France regarding its potential impact on EU immigration and climate policies.

While Spain’s principal leftist parties endorse EU membership, the right-wing PP shares this stance, but Vox does not.

As Spain currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, an election defeat for Sánchez could see the PP assuming the EU presidency.

WHAT ARE THE KEY CAMPAIGN THEMES?

The campaign has been marked by both sides accusing each other of deceit regarding their policies and past performance.

The PP has sought to question Sánchez’s credibility, emphasizing his policy reversals and alliances with minor regional separatist parties, thereby alienating even some leftist voters.

Conversely, the left attempts to persuade voters that both right-wing parties are fundamentally similar and that their victory could roll back decades of social progress.

Polls suggest a clear lead for the PP over the Socialists and Vox over Sumar for third place. However, around 30% of voters remain undecided.

Given the summertime elections, several citizens may be vacationing away from their usual polling stations. Nevertheless, there has been a significant increase in postal voting requests, with officials projecting a 70% election turnout.

COULD THERE BE A SURPRISE?

An unexpected element that may upend poll projections is Sumar: a new, broad-based alliance of 15 small left-wing parties, including Podemos, and influential social figures.

Led by the popular Labor Minister Yolanda Díaz—who is also the second deputy vice president and the sole woman among the main party leaders—Sumar represents the first united front of small leftist parties in Spain.

After shouldering the blame for many losses in the May elections due to their fragmentation, these parties hope that their union will make a greater impact.

Sumar aims to outperform Vox for the crucial third-place finish, which would enable them to provide crucial support for another left-wing coalition government. Polls during the campaign have consistently indicated that an absolute majority for the Popular Party and Vox is a real possibility.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) about Spanish general election

More about Spanish general election

• Spanish Politics
• European Union Member States
• Political Trends in the European Union
• Francisco Franco’s Dictatorship
• Pedro Sánchez’s Political Career