Russian Forces Pressuring Ukraine’s Northeast to Divert Attention from Critical Fronts in Counteroffensive

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In the dense woodlands of northeastern Ukraine, concealed beneath pine branches, the barrel of a Soviet-era howitzer emerges, trained on a distant group of advancing Russian infantrymen, several kilometers away.

A Ukrainian soldier signals for the firing sequence, then swiftly retreats to cover. The resonating boom of the fired projectile unleashes a cloud of ebony smoke, intermingled with fleeting bursts of yellow flames. Adjacent to the scene, a growing accumulation of spent shells adorns the surrounding undergrowth.

Within this specific fragment of the expansive 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) front line, the Russian military orchestrates a determined thrust. This maneuver aims to immobilize Ukrainian forces, redirect their focus from an ongoing counteroffensive, and restrict the number of troops that Kyiv can allocate to more pivotal engagements in the southern regions.

This tactical move by the Kremlin imperils the momentum of the counteroffensive, which was initiated nearly three months prior. Kyiv’s endeavor to reclaim territory under Russian occupation has yielded only incremental gains coupled with substantial casualties. As the summer campaign season’s waning weeks draw near, Ukrainian troops grapple with the pressing urgency to maximize their advancements.

Presently, the Ukrainian military designates the engagements in the northeast, particularly in proximity to the town of Kupiansk within the northern Kharkiv region, as well as the sylvan areas near Lyman, as Russia’s principal offensive fronts.

Meanwhile, the crux of Ukraine’s offensive operations concentrates on the southern theater, where gradual progress inches the forces closer to the shores of the Sea of Azov. This strategic maneuver seemingly intends to sever the land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014. Such a maneuver would bifurcate the Russian-occupied expanse in southern Ukraine, undermining Moscow’s logistical conduits.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar exhorts observers to evaluate Ukrainian advances not merely in terms of kilometers or meters, but rather by the very fact that progress persists amidst these arduous circumstances.

While the Russian strategy maintains Ukrainian forces preoccupied along the predominantly stationary northeastern front, Russia capitalizes on the interval to bolster defenses in the south, inclusive of extensive minefields, according to Ukrainian authorities. The fortified entrenchments impede Kyiv’s southward advances.

Concurrently, the Ukrainians grapple with constraints in terms of manpower, aerial supremacy, and artillery dominance. The imminent advent of the autumn rainy season compounds the existing complexities. The mire-laden terrain will hamper both infantry movements and the deployment of heavy machinery.

Within the southern realm, Ukrainian troops have recently achieved noteworthy success in breaching Russian lines. Since launching the counteroffensive, Ukraine has advanced approximately 7 kilometers (4.3 miles) within the southern Zaporizhzhia region. Notably, they surmounted formidable Russian fortifications to reclaim the village of Robotyne last week, marking a tactically significant victory within that sector.

However, these territorial gains pale in comparison to the ambitions harbored by Western allies. Despite the limitations, securing control over Robotyne propels Ukrainian forces closer to the town of Tokmak, situated approximately 30 kilometers (19 miles) away. This town serves as a pivotal rail hub under Russian occupation. A progression of even 15 kilometers (9 miles) beyond Robotyne could bring Ukrainian forces within striking distance of Russia’s pivotal east-west transport arteries. This could potentially curtail Moscow’s combat effectiveness, contend military analysts.

“Legion,” a Ukrainian soldier stationed in Zaporizhzhia, asserts, “We have breached the initial line of Russian defenses, and the secondary line lies ahead.” This success, he attributes to NATO-provided armaments, particularly U.S.-manufactured Bradley combat vehicles, in conjunction with Ukrainian-produced drones capable of striking targets as distant as 60 kilometers (37 miles) behind Russian positions.

In specific sectors, such as the Robotyne area, the second line of defense is recognized as notably robust, remarks military spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun. Breaching these fortifications necessitates meticulous preparation.

Kyiv has refrained from explicitly outlining the objectives of the counteroffensive, beyond the overarching aim to restore Ukraine’s territorial boundaries as they existed in 1991.

In the northeast, Russia escalated its offensive activities in mid-July, amassing a substantial contingent of 100,000 troops. Scarred swaths of trees stand as evidence of Russian artillery bombardments against Ukrainian positions amidst the verdant forests near Lyman. The area, once known as the “silver forest” among locals, has now assumed a more somber identity as the “black forest.”

Near Kupiansk’s outskirts, Ukrainian forces traverse expansive open fields adjacent to the Synkivka settlement, where Russian forces concentrate their thrust. Villages in proximity lie in ruins, offering scarce avenues for Ukrainian cover.

Brigade artillery commander Viktor Yurchuk acknowledges, “The adversary persists in its ceaseless attempts to advance.” The ceaseless combat sustains its intensity.

Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s ground forces commander, discloses that Russian troops are undergoing reorganization both in the Kupiansk and Lyman sectors. The reinforcement entails the deployment of newly-formed brigades, divisions, and advanced weaponry. Maliar reveals that professional airborne units have been mobilized from the vicinity of Avdiivka, situated further south within the Donetsk region, where both armies are entangled in ongoing hostilities.

Beyond impeding the southward redeployment of Ukrainian forces, the Russian thrust in the northeast simultaneously establishes a protective buffer for the Kremlin’s supply routes. Moscow’s ambition includes halting Ukrainian progress in Bakhmut, where Kyiv’s forces recently seized control of elevated vantage points within closer proximity to Russia’s supply conduits.

For Yurchuk, this signifies that the intensity of the battles will persist unrelentingly. Having been engaged in combat for over a year and a half, he expresses the prevailing fatigue.

“Believe me, everyone is wearied by the ongoing war,” he asserts.

Behind closed doors, concerns among Ukraine’s allies surface, questioning the counteroffensive’s potential shortcomings. Soldiers retort that each kilometer of advance is a monumental accomplishment when confronting a well-fortified adversary.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan challenges the notion of a stalemate, asserting last week that Ukrainians are “adhering to their strategic tactics and timetable.”

The concerns of these allies reverberate within the ranks of Ukrainian soldiers stationed on the front line.

“It is profoundly challenging for our soldiers to hear criticisms about the sluggish pace of our advance,” discloses a drone operator known by the call sign “Salam,” affiliated with the elite Adam Group operating in the Bakhmut vicinity. “We are eyewitnesses to the frontline situation, and swiftness was never an expectation.”

This perspective resonates among numerous Ukrainian service members.

Reflecting this mounting frustration, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba remarked that denouncing the gradual tempo equates to “disparaging the very soldiers who dedicate their lives daily.”

“I would advise all critics to withhold their judgments, visit Ukraine, and endeavor to liberate even a single square centimeter firsthand,” he remarked during a visit to Spain.

George Barros, an analyst affiliated with the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War think tank, offers an alternative perspective. He contends that the counteroffensive’s trajectory aligns favorably, considering the available support.

Given Russia’s apparent limitations in reserve forces, even a modest Ukrainian breakthrough that severs a strategic juncture in Russian lines could potentially strain the Kremlin’s troops.

Presently, there is no discernible indication that Russia’s northeastern exertions exert a substantial influence on the Ukrainian offensive unfolding in the south.

“We possess around one more month before the arrival of the rainy season,” forecasts Shtupun. “During this interval, I am optimistic that both we and our adversary retain the potential for offensive actions.”

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• Challenges of Weather Conditions in Warfare